That is the central message of Callum Thomas’s September 22 market update for Topdown Charts. His analysis suggests investors should pay closer attention to what could change as 2027 approaches.

Strong Growth Has a Complication

Thomas argues that earlier monetary easing helped the global economy regain momentum. But renewed inflation and a shift toward higher interest rates could weaken that support next year.

The effects take time. Higher borrowing costs gradually make mortgages, business loans and new investment more expensive. An economy can therefore look resilient today while pressure builds beneath the surface.

That also explains why strong economic news can produce an uncomfortable market reaction. Growth supports company earnings, but persistent inflation can keep interest rates higher.

Related: Fed Raises Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Inflation Persists.

How Much Optimism Is Already Priced In?

Thomas’s charts show technology shares trading at relative valuation premiums near 20-year highs, while defensive sectors trade at unusually deep relative discounts. He also highlights record household allocations to equities.

His assessment is blunt:

“This is what you see at the later stages of the cycle.”

That is his interpretation, not a timetable for a crash. Expensive shares can keep rising if earnings exceed expectations.

But a strong business and an attractive investment are different things. When a share price already assumes exceptional growth, even solid results may disappoint. Defensive businesses, whose demand tends to fluctuate less with the economy, could attract interest if investors become more cautious.

Commodities Tell Another Part of the Story

Thomas sees industrial metals benefiting from resilient growth and investment in electrification, AI infrastructure and other capital-intensive industries.

He argues that market leadership has broadened beyond precious metals toward other commodities. However, he has become neutral on emerging-market equities, citing a less favourable balance of valuations, sentiment and market signals after their rally.

For readers, the useful distinction is that rising commodity prices can support producers while increasing costs for businesses that consume those materials.

Could Unpopular Bonds Have Their Turn?

Thomas also highlights bond allocations near 20-year lows and increasingly attractive valuations.

Bonds could benefit if growth weakens and interest rates fall. However, long-term bonds can suffer substantial price declines if inflation persists and yields keep rising. Their potential defensive role depends on what causes the next market downturn.

Related: Warsh Says Inflation Is “Too High” as Fed Raises Rates.

The question is whether portfolios built around yesterday’s strongest performers can handle tomorrow’s conditions. Expensive stocks may keep delivering, but rising rates and changing valuations give investors a reason to look beyond the familiar winners.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Stocks Look Expensive. Bonds Look Unwanted. Is the Market Ready for a Shift? first appeared on Finblog.

In a social media post reported by Reuters, Trump wrote:

“I want to leave it exactly where it is. That is China’s position also. Our guardrail is the DOJ!”

His reference to the Department of Justice points to relying on existing enforcement powers. The statement did not announce an agreement to freeze AI development.

Related: Trump Rejects AI Slowdown Calls, Citing Competition With China

Xi Emphasises Human Control

Xi later stressed the responsibility of both countries to develop AI safely, saying its development should remain under human control, according to Fortune.

Officials have also discussed a notification system for AI incidents affecting national security, proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Such a channel would allow the two countries to alert each other about serious problems.

That is a narrower proposal than a shared limit on developing more powerful AI.

Related: US and China Talk Trade and AI Ahead of Xi Visit, With Taiwan in Background

AI Leaders Want More Cooperation

The debate follows appeals to the UN Security Council from Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and OpenAI’s Sam Altman. Amodei called for safeguards against biological misuse, verification of commitments and an alert system. Altman backed rapid international incident reporting.

Related: Top AI Leaders Call for Slowing Down AI Development

Trump’s message signals continued resistance to broader restrictions. The practical question is whether Washington and Beijing can agree on specific safety measures while both keep pushing AI development forward.

The post Trump says he and China’s President Xi want to leave AI “exactly where it is” first appeared on Finblog.

The findings cover the downturn between late 2025 and the second quarter of 2026, rather than this week’s trading. Participants included pension funds, university endowments, sovereign wealth funds and family offices.

In its September 23 announcement, Bitwise summarised their approach:

“No institution named a price decline as a reason it would sell.”

Why They Stayed Invested

For these investors, the deciding factor was whether their original reasons for holding crypto remained valid.

Every participant with crypto exposure owned Bitcoin, usually as its largest and longest-held digital asset. Many viewed it as a potential store of value, sometimes alongside gold.

However, their commitment generally involved small portfolio allocations. Most reported putting 1%–2% of investable assets into crypto, although the full range was 0.5%–13%.

That distinction matters. As a simple illustration, a 50% loss on a position initially worth 2% of a portfolio would reduce the portfolio’s starting value by about 1%, assuming everything else stayed unchanged.

Related: “Old Coin” (Gold) vs “New Coin” (Bitcoin)

What Would Make Them Sell?

According to Cointelegraph’s coverage, respondents identified a regulatory reversal, an industry-wide credibility crisis or the failure of their investment case as possible reasons to exit.

Their confidence in Ether and Solana was more conditional. These positions were generally smaller and assessed over shorter periods. Some investors wanted evidence that growing network activity would translate into greater value for the tokens themselves.

A Small Study, Not the Whole Market

The interviews offer insight into 15 institutions, not proof that all institutional investors held through the decline. Bitwise also sells crypto investment products, making its commercial interest relevant when interpreting its optimistic conclusions.

The striking finding is that these investors combined conviction with limited exposure and clear reasons to sell. Their approach was more considered than simply holding at any price.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Why 15 Institutions Held Their Crypto Through a 50% Market Crash first appeared on Finblog.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.13% on Wednesday, its highest since 2007, before closing at 5.11%, up from 4.96% a day earlier, according to Cointelegraph.

Another Fed Hike Comes Into Focus

At the time of the report, CME’s FedWatch tool showed a 75.3% probability of an October 28 increase to 4%–4.25%.

Higher yields make government debt more competitive with riskier investments. Rising borrowing costs can also make leveraged Bitcoin positions more expensive to maintain.

Related: Fed Raises Rates for the First Time Since 2023 as Inflation Persists

Bitcoin Still Holds September Gains

Despite the decline, Bitcoin remained 7.35% higher for September at the report’s snapshot.

FOREX.com analyst James Stanley offered some perspective:

“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD.”

He identified $82,833 as a level to watch if the pullback deepens.

Bitcoin’s September recovery faces a tougher interest-rate backdrop. The next inflation and jobs figures could matter more than hopes for a seasonal October rally.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Bitcoin Falls Below $84,000 as Treasury Yields Hit first appeared on Finblog.

Speaking on The Ezra Klein Show, Huang said those fears were “not grounded on science.” If developers genuinely cannot control their systems, he argued:

“We have to shut the labs down.”

His comments came as OpenAI and Anthropic executives urged governments at the UN to cooperate on AI safety, Semafor reported.

A Growing Split Over AI Safety

Huang’s shutdown argument drew attention from AI researcher Gary Marcus, who said it should apply to companies whose systems have already escaped safeguards.

Marcus argued that Huang’s own reasoning supported temporarily stopping unsafe development. He questioned whether relying on existing laws and corporate liability would work without governments enforcing them.

The disagreement exposes a practical question: Should governments intervene before developers lose control, or punish companies when their systems cause harm?

Related: Top AI Leaders Call for Slowing Down AI Development.

Nvidia Is Planning for More Growth

Huang’s position comes as Nvidia prepares for another expansion. He expects the company to sell twice as many chips in 2027 as in 2026, according to Barron’s.

That forecast concerns chip volumes, not a doubling of revenue, an important distinction when assessing Nvidia’s growth outlook.

His resistance to a broad slowdown also places him alongside President Donald Trump, who has pushed back against calls to restrict AI development.

Related: Trump Rejects AI Slowdown Calls, Citing Competition With China.

Nvidia is preparing to supply a much bigger AI industry. The unresolved question is whether safety measures can keep pace, and who should step in when they cannot.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content is for informational and educational purposes only.

The post Nvidia CEO Dismisses AI Fears as a “Distraction” first appeared on Finblog.

The meeting, convened by France, brought Sam Altman, Dario Amodei, Yoshua Bengio and Hugging Face’s Clément Delangue into a debate with governments over how to manage AI’s growing risks.

What AI Leaders Want

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned about losing human control and concentrating power in too few hands. He argued that governments accountable to the public must help shape AI’s future.

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei outlined three practical steps in remarks carried by Democracy Now!:

• Ban AI use in biological weapons.
• Create evaluation and verification systems so countries can assess powerful models and check one another’s commitments.
• Establish shared safety tests and incident alerts for threats to global security.

“We will slow down as much as necessary,” Amodei said.

AI researcher Yoshua Bengio went further, proposing independent testing, licensing and liability insurance for developers of the most advanced systems, according to Insight EU Monitoring’s account of the debate. His argument was that companies should have to demonstrate safety rather than ask the public to trust them.

Related: Top AI Leaders Call for Slowing Down AI Development.

Why Washington Is Pushing Back

White House science adviser Michael Kratsios said rapid progress did not justify pausing development or creating international control structures. Washington favours national regulation, technical cooperation and sharing best practices, The Next Web reported.

“A prosperous future will not be secured by a global regulator,” Kratsios said.

That leaves a meaningful distinction: countries can cooperate on safety without handing authority to a single global watchdog. Whether shared standards would be voluntary or enforceable remains central to the debate.

Related: Trump Rejects AI Slowdown Calls, Citing Competition With China.

The next test is whether governments and AI companies can turn these warnings into measurable commitments: independent safety checks, clear incident reporting and agreed limits on dangerous uses. Calling for safer AI is only the beginning.

The post Should the UN Help Set Global AI Rules? AI Tech Billionaires Address Security Council first appeared on Finblog.

Germany recorded a 75% increase, while sales in France more than doubled, according to Bloomberg’s reporting on ACEA data.

Fuel Costs Change the Calculation

Disruption to Gulf oil shipments and attacks on Russian refineries have intensified pressure on fuel supplies. In Germany, average petrol prices reached €2.31 a litre, making running costs harder for drivers to ignore.

Home charging can offer substantial savings. A Verivox analysis cited in the report estimated that charging a mid-range or luxury EV at home in Germany costs around 70% less than fuelling a petrol car. Actual savings depend on the vehicle, electricity tariff and access to home charging.

More affordable models and government incentives are also supporting demand. Through August, more than one in three new vehicles sold in Europe had a plug, a measure that includes plug-in hybrids as well as fully electric cars.

Related: Rising Fuel Costs Reshape Politics as Voters Demand Relief

Even Bentley Is Going Electric

The shift is reaching the luxury market. Bentley unveiled its first fully electric vehicle on September 23, testing wealthy buyers’ appetite for battery-powered motoring, Reuters reported.

However, Bentley previously abandoned its goal of becoming fully electric by 2030, showing that the transition remains uneven across brands and customers.

Manufacturing Countries Face Pressure to Adapt

South Africa risks losing future vehicle production to Asian competitors as carmakers choose where to build their next electric models.

A separate Reuters analysis highlights the stakes: the automotive industry accounted for 23.8% of South Africa’s manufacturing output in 2025 and directly employed about 113,000 people.

Investment incentives could help, but reliable electricity, infrastructure and competitive production costs remain essential.

High fuel prices are changing more than household budgets. They are accelerating buying decisions and putting pressure on manufacturers to ensure their factories can build the cars customers increasingly want.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post EU EV Sales Surge 52% as Soaring Fuel Prices Push Drivers to Switch first appeared on Finblog.

The White House says third-party financial institutions independently manage the portfolio, with neither Trump nor his family directing or influencing investment decisions or transaction timing.

What Did the Accounts Buy and Sell?

The periodic transaction report released by the US Office of Government Ethics, covered by Stocktwits, lists these transactions:

The largest listed crypto-related transaction was the July 27 Strategy purchase. The filing reports value ranges, so the precise amounts spent or received are not disclosed.

What Does the Disclosure Tell Us?

These are July transactions disclosed later, rather than fresh September purchases.

The entries show buying and selling across crypto-related companies, but they do not establish the portfolio’s total remaining holdings or whether its overall exposure to Bitcoin increased.

Related: Rebalance Your Portfolio in 5 Steps and Avoid Tax Drag

The filing offers a snapshot of trading in Trump’s accounts. With the White House saying independent managers make the decisions, the transactions should not be presented as Trump personally recommending these stocks or signalling a policy change.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Trump Disclosure Shows Coinbase and Strategy Buys, Bitcoin Miner Sales first appeared on Finblog.

Israel’s Channel 12, in reporting relayed by Gate News, said American officials challenged Tehran’s authority to control the waterway during indirect talks at the UN General Assembly in New York.

What Happened in the Talks?

US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in one room, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi remained in another. Qatari mediators carried messages between them, according to the report.

The American delegation reportedly told Tehran that Iran did not control the strait and questioned its authority to offer its reopening.

Further indirect meetings remained possible, with mediators awaiting President Donald Trump’s decision on whether to continue the process. The reported rejection does not establish that negotiations have ended.

Related: Oil Market Faces New Reality as Strait of Hormuz Disruption Drags On

Iran Warns of a Wider Shipping Conflict

Meanwhile, Yahya Rahim Safavi, a military adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, warned that connecting the Hormuz conflict with Bab el-Mandeb would “change the battlefield,” according to Iran International.

Bab el-Mandeb links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Threats there, involving Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, could compound shipping disruption around Hormuz. Safavi’s comments were a warning of escalation, not confirmation that the second strait had closed.

The immediate question is whether negotiators can overcome the disagreement over Hormuz. Until there is a workable arrangement for safe passage, businesses face continued uncertainty over energy supplies, shipping costs and delivery times.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post US Reportedly Rejects Iran’s Hormuz Proposal first appeared on Finblog.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the extension on September 23 after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, ahead of President Donald Trump’s summit with Xi Jinping, according to Reuters.

“We met today to see if we could do a bigger deal as opposed to just a series of smaller things,” Bessent said.

What Does the Extension Change?

The Busan Agreement, previously due to expire on November 10, provides a temporary pause in the trade confrontation. Extending it gives businesses more time before another negotiating deadline, but does not remove all tariffs or settle the wider trade dispute.

The existing arrangement covers tariff relief, access to critical minerals and Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods.

Related: US and China Talk Trade and AI Ahead of Xi Visit, With Taiwan in Background

Farm Purchases Remain a Sticking Point

Washington wants Beijing to follow through more fully on its commitments.

According to ICIS, Bessent said China was meeting its pledge to purchase 25 million tonnes of US soybeans, but remained short on a commitment involving $17 billion of other agricultural products.

Bessent also acknowledged that a larger agreement might not be ready by January. Another extension of the existing truce remains an option if broader negotiations take longer.

The extension buys breathing room for businesses and negotiators. The next test is whether Washington and Beijing can turn that extra time into fulfilled commitments and a more durable trade agreement.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post US, China agree to extend ‘the Busan agreement’ until January first appeared on Finblog.