President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer unveiled what they called a “historic” US-UK trade deal — a major announcement framed as a victory for both nations. But a closer look at the details reveals a mix of limited economic benefits, lingering tariffs, political posturing, and unresolved tensions that may shape future global deals.

Here’s a breakdown of what’s really in the deal — and what’s missing.

What’s Actually in the Deal?

For the U.S.:

  • $5 billion in new export opportunities (Commerce estimate): beef, ethanol, chemicals, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and more.
  • $10 billion order for Boeing ($BA) planes — a symbolic win for U.S. manufacturing.
  • First-ever tariff-free beef quota into the UK (13,000 metric tonnes).
  • Reduced tariffs on ethanol (UK’s 19% ethanol tariff cut to zero).
  • Easier access to UK’s public procurement market and “preferential treatment” under future Section 232 tariffs.

For the UK:

  • Auto tariffs cut: From 27.5% to 10% on 100,000 cars (nearly the full 2024 export volume).
  • Steel tariffs eliminated: From 25% to zero, saving UK steel jobs.
  • No change to UK food standards: Despite U.S. pressure, the UK rejected hormone-treated beef and chlorinated chicken.
  • Avoided concessions on the UK digital services tax (which impacts U.S. tech giants like Google and Meta).
  • “Preferential treatment” promise on future tariffs affecting pharmaceuticals and semiconductors — critical for UK companies like AstraZeneca and GSK.

What’s Not in the Deal (or Still Unresolved)?

  • 10% universal U.S. tariff still applies to most UK goods — a key frustration for British exporters.
  • Pharmaceutical tariffs still unresolved — no carve-out yet for UK drug giants.
  • No breakthrough on film/TV tariffs — Trump’s threatened 100% tariff on foreign-made movies remains on the table, worrying UK studios.
  • Food concerns linger — though standards were preserved, U.S. officials hint they’ll push again on opening UK markets to more U.S. agricultural goods.

Positive Sides & Benefits

For America:

  • Strengthens Trump’s “America First” image as countries cave to his tariff pressure.
  • Expands U.S. agricultural, industrial, and aerospace sales into Britain.
  • Offers a symbolic win as Trump faces mounting pressure from business groups and farmers hit by tariff fallout.

For Britain:

  • Protects UK carmakers, steel producers, and farmers from punishing tariffs.
  • Positions Britain as a key U.S. ally post-Brexit — avoiding deeper isolation.
  • Gives Starmer’s new government a much-needed political win as the UK economy struggles.

Negative Sides & Criticism

For America:

  • Overall economic boost is small — the projected $5B in new exports represents only a 6% boost to U.S.-UK trade, and a tiny fraction of total U.S. exports.
  • Critics say the deal mainly protects Rolls-Royces and Bentleys, not ordinary American workers.
  • U.S. carmakers (Ford, GM, Stellantis) are angry the deal favors UK imports over Canadian and Mexican cars, which still face 25% tariffs.
  • Many U.S. farm groups were muted or underwhelmed, saying more work is needed.

For Britain:

  • Keeps in place Trump’s 10% global tariff on most UK goods.
  • Offers only narrow sectoral wins, far short of the full free trade deal Britain once sought.
  • Leaves big sectors like pharma, digital, and entertainment vulnerable to future U.S. tariffs.
  • Relies heavily on political goodwill, not firm economic guarantees.

What Analysts & Stakeholders Say

  • Stan Veuger (American Enterprise Institute):
    “They basically took the status quo, made marginal changes, and called it a deal.”
  • Paul Ashworth (Capital Economics):
    “This rush to demonstrate progress on ‘deals’ reveals rising desperation to roll back tariffs before they hit GDP and inflation.”
  • Jake Colvin (National Foreign Trade Council):
    “If this agreement leaves in place the 10% U.S. tariff on most imports, that’s a fourfold increase over pre-April rates.”
  • Mike Hawes (UK Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders):
    “This deal will provide much-needed relief, allowing the UK auto industry to approach the future more positively.”
  • Ron Wyden (D-Ore., Senate Finance):
    “There’s not much THERE, there… American families and businesses will keep getting hammered with Trump’s reckless tariffs.”

What’s Next?

This deal sets a template for upcoming U.S. negotiations with South Korea, Japan, India, and Vietnam. But tougher talks loom, especially with China — where the U.S. has imposed 145% tariffs, triggering $400B in trade freezes.

With Trump’s 90-day tariff pause expiring July 8, global markets are watching closely to see whether this UK pact is the start of meaningful de-escalation — or just political cover.

This US-UK trade deal offers symbolic wins, sectoral relief, and political headlines — but falls short of a transformational trade breakthrough for either side. It’s a step forward, but the road ahead remains long, complicated, and full of economic risks.

Sources used:

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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