Renowned Bitcoin skeptic and chief economist Peter Schiff is once again raising alarms about Bitcoin’s future, tying its fate to the broader downturn in financial markets. In his latest comments, Schiff draws parallels between the NASDAQ’s current 12% decline and potential deeper trouble for both equities and crypto—particularly Bitcoin (BTC).

Schiff’s Bearish Bitcoin Forecast

Schiff predicts that if the NASDAQ continues its slide into a full-blown bear market, Bitcoin could follow with an even steeper decline. His analysis suggests a correlation where a 12% NASDAQ drop could translate into a 24% drop for Bitcoin.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $83,000, already down 23.5% from its all-time high. But Schiff warns that if the NASDAQ falls by 20%, Bitcoin could tumble to $65,000. And that, he says, might just be the beginning.

Schiff references historic crashes—including:

  • The Dot-com bubble burst (NASDAQ fell 80%)
  • The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (NASDAQ down 55%)
  • The COVID-19 crash (NASDAQ down 30%)

If the current downturn follows similar patterns, Schiff envisions Bitcoin crashing to $20,000 or lower—a drop of over 75% from current levels.

Gold: Schiff’s Safe Haven

As expected, Schiff is bullish on gold. He highlights that gold prices are up 13% since the NASDAQ’s peak in December 2023, showcasing an inverse relationship between gold and risk assets like tech stocks and crypto.

Schiff forecasts that if the NASDAQ plunges by 40%, gold could surge above $3,800 per ounce. Additionally, if the U.S. dollar weakens on the forex markets, gold could see even bigger gains.

In Schiff’s view, this would solidify gold’s role as a stable store of value, in stark contrast to Bitcoin’s projected decline.

Bitcoin’s Store of Value Reputation at Risk

Schiff argues that even if Bitcoin stabilizes at $20,000, its 85% drawdown relative to gold’s potential gains would shatter its “digital gold” narrative. He claims this would lead to:

  • Governments abandoning Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset
  • Institutional and ETF investors dumping their BTC holdings
  • Potential bankruptcy risks for Bitcoin-heavy firms like MicroStrategy (MSTR) if selling intensifies

Schiff’s Bottom Line

For years, Peter Schiff has been consistently critical of Bitcoin, and this latest forecast reinforces his belief that gold is the true safe haven, not crypto. While Bitcoin has defied skeptics before, Schiff’s scenario paints a grim picture should the market downturn escalate.

But history shows Bitcoin has weathered bear markets and recovered. Whether this time will be different remains to be seen.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.


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