Market Looks Strong—But Whales Are Quietly Exiting, Should You?

SPY is near all-time highs. VIX is low. The headlines are bullish. But beneath the surface, something is off.

Institutions aren’t just hedging—they’re pulling money out at an alarming rate.

But behind the scenes, something is off. Institutions are pulling money out at an alarming rate.

📉 Institutional Conviction: Down 53% from last year.
📉 Big-Money Trades: Have disappeared.
📉 Put Buying: Surging, even as markets rally.
📉 CPI Event Trading: Collapsed.

🚨 The last time WARI levels were this low?
🔴 Before the March 2023 banking crisis.
🔴 Before the Credit Suisse collapse.
🔴 Before the August 2023 selloff.

This time, the data looks even worse.

The Whale Alert Risk Indicator (WARI) – The Market’s Silent Alarm

What is WARI????

The Whale Alert Risk Indicator (WARI) is a tool that tracks how big-money traders (whales) are positioning in the options market.

It looks at key factors like:
✅ Put/Call Ratio – Are whales more bearish (puts) or bullish (calls)?
✅ Large Orders – Are they making high-confidence trades or sitting out?
✅ Short & Long-Term Positioning – Are they betting on fast moves or trends?
✅ CPI & Event Trading – Are they reacting to key macroeconomic events?

When WARI is high, it means whales are taking on risk and likely expecting upside.
When WARI is low, it means whales are hedging, avoiding risk, or expecting a selloff.

Most traders react to the news. Whales move before it.

If whales are bullish, WARI rises.
If whales are hedging, WARI falls.
If whales are running for the exits, WARI collapses.

And right now? It’s in freefall.

WARI Score – Institutions Are Tapping Out

What does it look like when institutional conviction disappears?

It looks like this. A 53% collapse in WARI from last year. In 2023, institutions were still making bets. Even in uncertainty, they were in the market. In 2024, they held steady. But in 2025?

💥 Institutional conviction has collapsed by 53% compared to last year.
📉 In 2023, institutions were still making bets despite uncertainty.
📉 In 2024, they remained in the market.
📉 In 2025, they are backing away fast.

Put-to-Call Ratio – Whales Are Hedging Like It’s 2008 According to Alerts

A rising market should mean whales are buying calls. But they’re not.

Instead, put buying is up over 30% from last year—the highest it’s been since before the March 2020 crash. When put hedging rises while the market rallies, it’s a warning.

It means whales don’t trust this move. It means they see risk ahead. And the last time put positioning hit these levels, the market collapsed soon after. Whales don’t hedge this aggressively unless they expect volatility.

📉 A rising market + surging put hedging = “We don’t trust this rally.”

Where Did The Big Bets Go? Institutions Have Left the Building

Whales don’t place 100-lot orders like retail traders. They make massive, high-conviction bets.

But this year? Those bets have disappeared.

Large orders are down 85% from last year. That’s not just a slowdown—that’s institutions pulling liquidity and refusing to take big swings. This is how markets break: when liquidity dries up, volatility explodes.

And right now? Institutions are refusing to play the game. That should make you nervous.

Whales don’t trade like retail—they make massive, high-conviction bets. But in 2025?

📉 Large orders are down 85% from last year.
📉 Liquidity is vanishing.
📉 Volatility is about to spike.

💥 Markets break when liquidity dries up. This is a red flag.

CPI Trading Has Collapsed – The Market’s Biggest Event Is a Ghost Town

CPI is the single most important economic event of the month. Whales usually pile in before and after the report, trading volatility and hedging ahead of market-moving surprises. ( Explanation of CPI Trading in detail: CPI trading refers to how institutional investors position themselves around the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report. Whales typically trade options and adjust portfolios ahead of CPI data to hedge against inflation risks or capitalize on market volatility. A decline in CPI trading activity suggests institutions see heightened uncertainty and are choosing to step back rather than take directional bets.)

But this year? They’re not showing up.

CPI trading volume is down 77% from last year. That means institutions aren’t hedging inflation risk—they’re avoiding the market entirely. The last time we saw whale positioning like this? Right before the March 2023 banking crisis.

If institutions are pulling back on CPI trading, it means they see risk—but no opportunity. That’s a major red flag.

Conclusion – What This Means for Investors

📊 Institutions aren’t just cautious—they are running for the exits.
🔹 Put buying is skyrocketing despite a rising market—they don’t trust the rally.
🔹 Big-money trades are drying up—institutions are stepping aside.
🔹 CPI trading has collapsed—they don’t see opportunity, just risk.

💡 Retail investors are still piling into stocks—but can they keep the market up alone?

This could be a warning sign. Markets may still go higher, but whales don’t hedge like this unless they expect volatility.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Source: YEET

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