Shipping and logistics stocks rallied sharply on Monday after the U.S. and China agreed to dramatically slash tariffs for 90 days, signaling a pause in the trade war that had brought Chinese shipments to a near standstill.
President Trump confirmed that U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports will drop from 145% to 30%, including a 20% levy specifically tied to fentanyl-related goods. China will also reduce its own tariffs on U.S. products from 125% to 10%. The move follows what officials described as a “productive” weekend of negotiations, though steel, aluminum, and other categories remain excluded from this round of cuts.
Trump on Friday: “80% [tariff cut] seems right.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added Monday: “We are in agreement that neither side wants to decouple.”
Shipping Industry Reacts — But Stays Cautious
The shipping sector had been reeling in recent weeks. After the April 2 tariff hikes, U.S. importers scrambled to cancel orders on a wide range of Chinese goods — including toys, apparel, and furniture. Analysts estimated that 20%–30% of sailings from China were being canceled weekly, a drop not seen outside of holidays like Chinese New Year.
But Monday’s news sparked immediate optimism:
- ZIM Integrated Shipping ($ZIM) surged +14%
- Old Dominion Freight Line ($ODFL) rose +12%
- ArcBest ($ARCB) gained +14%
- XPO Logistics ($XPO) jumped +14%
- J.B. Hunt ($JBHT) saw a surprising +110% move
- Schneider National ($SNDR) climbed +7.7%
Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk: “If the tariffs go away, they will reopen the gates for purchase orders and parts purchase… If not, I don’t think our customers have a good playbook.”
Retailers and Port Activity Also Bounce
Major U.S. retailers also saw gains as investor sentiment turned bullish on improved trade flow:
- Amazon ($AMZN) rose +8%, moving above its 200-day line
- Target ($TGT) jumped +4.9%
- Walmart ($WMT) ticked slightly higher, trading within a buy zone ahead of earnings Thursday
Meanwhile, analysts at William Blair noted a 19% year-over-year increase in port tonnage data, despite the ship count still being 6% lower than last year.
Richard de Chazal, William Blair: “Companies are still in limbo… They’ll restock depending on how fast this new deal gets finalized — otherwise we risk empty shelves and job cuts.”
Still a Gamble: Frontload or Wait?
Despite the excitement, shipping analysts warn that uncertainty is far from over.
Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence: “The tariffs during the pause are still at 30% — higher than any prior China tariffs. Importers are now left to gamble: frontload inventory now, or wait and risk higher tariffs later?”
Murphy emphasized that most logistics companies and importers are still in the dark about how to respond, especially with the current deal only set to last until August 14.
Not Global — Yet
Maersk’s Clerc added that the shipping slowdown remains mostly U.S.-centric, with global volumes outside the U.S.–China corridor holding steady.
“The uncertainty has so far been very U.S.-centric rather than global,” Clerc noted.
Still, international container freight shippers like Euroseas ($ESEA), Euroholdings ($EHLD), and Navios Maritime Partners ($NMM) have posted multi-month rebounds. Oil tanker stocks such as Frontline ($FRO), Teekay Tankers ($TNK), and International Seaways ($INSW) are also climbing amid falling oil prices, which typically boost shipping volume.
The U.S.–China tariff truce has delivered a much-needed bounce to the battered shipping and logistics industry. But with just a 90-day window, importers and investors remain cautious about how sustainable this recovery will be.
If the deal holds — and if tariffs are eventually removed altogether — analysts believe a “catch-up effect” could unleash a wave of pent-up trade demand out of China. But if talks stall again, shipping lanes could freeze up once more.
Until then, the industry is caught in limbo — balancing between hope and hesitation.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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