Tariffs bite into global consumption, but OPEC remains more bullish than Wall Street.
OPEC has trimmed its global oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels/day for both 2025 and 2026, citing weakening consumption due to President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy.
The cartel now expects demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels/day (1%) each year, still well above the more bearish projections from other institutions.
The U.S. EIA slashed its own 2025 forecast by 30%, while Goldman Sachs sees demand rising by just 500,000 barrels/day.
Trade War Hits the Oil Market
OPEC’s latest report blames Trump’s sweeping tariffs on over 60 countries for cooling global trade and energy consumption.
But the group — led by Saudi Arabia — still maintains a rosier view than most.
OPEC has been known to overshoot on demand forecasts before, having cut its 2024 projections by 32% across six consecutive months last year.
Meanwhile, crude futures have tumbled, with Brent trading near $65 a barrel, the lowest in four years.
OPEC’s Internal Struggles Resurface
The report also highlights rising tensions within the group.
🇰🇿 Kazakhstan defied output quotas, increasing production by 37,000 barrels/day last month — now pumping 422,000 barrels/day over its limit, with no signs of offset cuts.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly pushing for stricter enforcement and accelerating production hikes to pressure non-compliant members and regain price control.
Finblog Takeaway:
- Demand is softening, and OPEC is adjusting late — again.
- With oil prices sliding and internal compliance breaking down, Saudi Arabia is shifting from restraint to retaliation.
- As Trump’s tariffs reshape global trade, even OPEC’s bullishness can’t mask the reality: The energy market is bracing for a slower world.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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