Morgan Stanley Pushes Tesla Stock Forecast from $200 to $800: Here's why

Morgan Stanley with a MASSIVE call:

As Tesla’s stock, $TSLA, falls below its November 5th low, MS is calling for a HISTORIC rally to $800 next.

This would imply a +300% rally, which they say can happen within 12 MONTHS.

Here’s how they see it happening.

(Note: The Report by analyst Adam Jonas was shared and is restricted by Morgan Stanley and is not publicly available, however, screenshots from the report are included in the article for better explanation.)

Let’s begin with some context: Between November 5th and December 17th, Tesla, $TSLA, rallied a massive +91%.

The stock hit a record market cap of $1.5 trillion before falling below $400/share as the trade war began. In 1 month, $TSLA is down -33% to pre-election levels.

Morgan Stanley thinks this is a huge buying opportunity. They specifically note that this is an AI play as Tesla is an “embodied AI compounder.”

MS believes that the recent drop is due to negative brand sentiment just as much as fundamental sales data and market de-grossing. And they note that the recent decline IS due to weak delivery data.

Tesla’s January sales were down 45% y/y in January, according to Bloomberg.

MS sees Tesla and @ElonMusk employing “DOGE-like actions” to reduce costs and address excess capacity. This would be huge.

Furthermore, MS believes the drop is LARGELY sentiment based. They note that their discussions with investors were all about Tesla being the “AI winner” at the December record high of ~$488.

Now, it’s back to “management distraction” which we have seen multiple times before. Here’s the boldest part about the call:

MS believes their $800 bull case could be reached within the next 12 MONTHS. This would make Tesla a $2.5 TRILLION company. MS says the immense volatility means the stock can hit both $200 and $800 within the next 12 months.

Here are their catalysts for upside:

1. Auston Robotaxi unveil between June and August
2. Federal rulemaking around autonomous vehicles
3. AI/Humanoid day for Tesla’s Optimus
4. Other technological and commercial milestones

Their call is both fundamental and sentiment-based. And, President Trump just reaffirmed his support for @ElonMusk and Tesla.

Last night, President Trump said he is going to “buy a brand new Tesla tomorrow morning as a show of confidence and support for Elon Musk.” (Elon Musk Admits Running Tesla and X ‘With Great Difficulty’ as Tesla Shares Plunge)

The initial reaction was a +6% rebound in $TSLA. This comes after Tesla posted its 7th worst day in history yesterday.

The stock fell -15.4% in its worst single-day decline since 2020. In under 3 months, $TSLA erased more than half of its entire value while reporting just Q4’s earnings results.

Sentiment is everything.

Morgan Stanley says $TSLA is cheap from a valuation perspective: The pullback has brought the stock to a 19x FY30 Price-to-Earnings ratio, according to their models.

Additionally, it has lowered the FY30 EV/EBITDA ratio to just 10x.

Tesla is MS’ “top pick” in US autos.

Yesterday’s drop put $TSLA near its most oversold daily RSI in history. Tesla stock’s, $TSLA, daily RSI is now down to ~21, just ~5 points away from its lowest level on record.

2025 is truly a historic year.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Source: TKL

Internal Ripple Emails Expose Anti-Bitcoin Smear Campaign

Trump wants to CRASH STOCK MARKET, but It’s All Part of the His Plan

‘I hate to predict things’: Trump doesn’t rule out US recession in 2025

Institutional Investors Bet $1B on These 4 Stocks—Should You?

Nasdaq 100 Crashes After Dimon & Buffett Sell-Off: What Did They Know?

CrowdStrike: Deep Dive into Company Fundamentals & Market Forecast

How Google tracks Android device users before they’ve even opened an app

Crypto Capital Of The World? Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Plan Sparks Debate

Next S&P 500 Inclusion Coming: Here are Potential Stock Additions