What to Expect in Markets This Week: Tariff Drama, Fed Minutes, Prime Day & Earnings

As the second week of July kicks off, Wall Street is juggling policy confusion, trade drama, and big corporate signals — all with the S&P 500 ($SPX) hovering near record highs.

President Trump’s landmark tax-and-spending package, signed late Friday, gives investors a new fiscal landscape to process. But the bigger question this week: what happens after July 9, when Trump’s 90-day “Liberation Day” tariff pause ends?

Add in the start of earnings season, the release of Fed minutes, and Amazon’s mega-sale, and the week ahead could easily turn volatile.

Here are 5 key themes to watch across markets this week:

More about: Stock futures fall after Trump warns new 10% tariffs

1. Tariff Deadline Drama: Which Date Actually Matters?

The clock is ticking on Trump’s trade war reboot. Technically, Wednesday, July 9 is the official end of the President’s 90-day tariff pause. But over the weekend, the White House added confusion.

“Tariffs go into effect August 1. But the President is setting the rates and the deals right now,” Commerce Secretary Lutnick said Sunday. Trump nodded alongside him.

Adding fuel to the fire, Trump threatened an extra 10% tariff on countries aligning with BRICS, escalating both geopolitical tensions and inflation risk. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed letters will go out to non-cooperative nations, possibly this week.

Bottom line: Wednesday may no longer be a hard deadline, but volatility could spike if any major trading partners (Japan, Mexico, EU) get hit with letters.

2. Fed Minutes and Bond Market Crossfire

Wednesday at 2 PM ET, the Fed will release minutes from its June meeting, offering insight into whether a September rate cut is still on the table. Markets will closely examine the Fed’s views on wage growth, core inflation, and the health of the labor market.

Meanwhile, bond traders face a triple test this week:

10-Year Note Auction – Wednesday, 1 PM ET
30-Year Bond Auction – Thursday, 1 PM ET
Fed’s Balance Sheet Update – Monday, 4:30 PM ET

Poor auction results could raise borrowing costs and spook rate-sensitive sectors. Strong demand, on the other hand, may reflect safe-haven appetite amid policy uncertainty.

3. Earnings Season Begins: Delta and Conagra in Focus

Thursday kicks off earnings season with key reports from:

Delta Air Lines (DAL) – Expect updates on travel demand, fuel costs, and pricing power. Guidance will be crucial in gauging consumer sentiment and global activity.
Conagra Brands (CAG) – A window into food inflation and consumer resilience. Can packaged food makers hold pricing amid cost pressure?

These reports, while not mega-cap tech names, will set the tone for how resilient US demand remains in Q3.

4. Taiwan Semi’s AI Checkpoint

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is expected to report June and Q2 sales this week. Why it matters?

TSM is the heartbeat of global chip production, and a critical supplier to Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and Apple (AAPL). Strong results will reinforce the AI investment boom, while weakness could trigger sector-wide jitters.

Analysts will watch closely for:

Capacity utilization trends
Inventory commentary
Forward demand from AI-related clients

As AI valuations stretch, TSM’s data will either validate the rally — or cause a reset.

5. Tesla’s Turbulence Continues

Tesla (TSLA) is still stuck in neutral despite better-than-expected Q2 deliveries. The stock remains pinned between its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, weighed down by:

Loss of EV tax credits after September 30
Phase-out of zero emission credit profits under the new legislation
Musk’s ongoing political feud with Trump
Growing autonomous competition from Uber and Mobileye

With robotaxi hype fizzling and structural incentives fading, Tesla needs more than promises to reignite momentum. Investors will watch for any updates on full self-driving (FSD) or international expansion plans.

Bonus Watch: Amazon Prime Day Starts Tuesday

Amazon (AMZN) launches Prime Day on Tuesday, now extended to four full days. Last year set sales records — will high inflation change the picture?

Retailers and investors alike will track:

Volume vs discounting strategy
Consumer behavior under cost pressure
Impact on logistics and inventory

Prime Day offers a real-time read on consumer demand — and Amazon’s execution in a margin-sensitive retail environment.it volume could signal more than just retail strength — they may indicate how cost-sensitive the US consumer remains.