The S&P 500 just posted its best week since 2023, closing up +5.2%, but don’t zoom out—tariffs, inflation fears, and bond panic still rule the macro mood.
Chaos Recap: Day by Day
Monday: Markets braced for “Black Monday 2.0” after China’s overnight retaliation. Stocks opened red, but traders latched onto a misquoted “90-day pause” tweet.
➤ Result? S&P 500 dipped just -0.23%.
➤ Larry Fink warned of a “bear market recession.” Wall Street half-listened.
Tuesday: The tweet was fake. Then Trump actually imposed 104% tariffs on China.
➤ Bond yields soared as traders dumped long-term notes.
➤ 10Y Treasury yield saw its biggest weekly rise since 2001.
Wednesday: Jamie Dimon predicted a recession. Trump tweeted: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Then, he paused the tariffs for 90 days—except on China.
➤ S&P +9.52%, Nasdaq +12.16%, Dow posted its biggest point gain in history.
➤ $4.3 trillion added in one day. Everyone hit “buy.”
Thursday: Reality returned. Trump’s “pause” still included 10% base tariffs, 145% on China, and 25% on U.S. allies. Bond selloffs resumed.
➤ 75 countries are now scrambling to negotiate before Q2 carnage.
Friday: China hit back.
➤ 125% tariffs on U.S. imports.
➤ Called the U.S. a “joke,” said they were “done going tit-for-tat.”
➤ Markets held green, but the hangover is coming.
Final Tally: Indexes Fly — But for How Long?
| Index | Close | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5,363 | +1.81% |
| Nasdaq | 16,725 | +2.06% |
| Dow Jones | 40,213 | +1.56% |
| Russell 2000 | 1,860 | +1.57% |
Tech led at +3.98%, real estate lagged at -0.54%.
Macro We Missed While Watching Tariff TikToks
- CPI & PPI both fell MoM. Markets didn’t care.
- UMich sentiment? Crashed. 60% of respondents blamed government policy — a record.
- Fed officials?
➤ Collins: Fed is “ready to step in.”
➤ Kashkari: We’re not there yet, but if things get worse, “we’ll act.”
➤ Williams: Recession and inflation may coexist. Hello, stagflation.
Big Lessons This Week
- Markets don’t move on fundamentals — they move on tweets and whiplash.
- Tariff talk is now Fed-level market-moving.
- Volatility is the new normal.
- Trump’s trade policy is basically day trading.
- Investors are exhausted, but portfolios are green (for now).
Bottom Line: Tariff panic, yield spike, tweet relief rally—wash, rinse, repeat. Until there’s clarity, expect markets to flip on headlines faster than you can flip a coin.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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