US President Donald Trump on Sunday refused to rule out the possibility that the US economy could enter a recession this year or that inflation could rise, as his sweeping and chaotic trade tariff policies continue to cause uncertainty and turbulence in global markets.

Speaking during an interview with Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, Trump said his economic strategy is a “period of transition” as he works to deliver on promises to repatriate wealth back to the U.S. economy.

When asked directly by anchor Maria Bartiromo, “Are you expecting a recession this year?” Trump demurred.

“I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of, it takes a little time. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us,” Trump said.

Stock Market Volatility and Tariff Impacts

Trump downplayed recent volatility in the stock market, despite market jitters linked to his unpredictable tariff policy shifts. These moves have included new tariffs on exports from Canada, Mexico, and China, along with similar threats targeting other nations.

“You have to do what’s right,” Trump said.

Even though Trump has often taken credit for stock market gains during his time in office, he appeared less concerned about market declines triggered by his latest economic measures.

Asked whether his tariffs on U.S. imports would fuel inflation, Trump replied:

“You may get it. In the meantime, guess what? Interest rates are down.”

Recession Fears Grow as Atlanta Fed Warns of Economic Contraction

Last week, the Atlanta Federal Reserve indicated that the U.S. economy may contract in the first quarter, which has intensified fears of a recession hitting the world’s largest economy if current weakness persists. This warning has fueled stock market jitters, with major indices experiencing notable declines.

Trump’s comments came after years of championing tariffs, once posting in 2018 on X (formerly Twitter):

“Trade wars are good, and easy to win.”

That perspective has not been widely shared by economists and market experts.

A Shift in Tone from the Campaign Trail

On Sunday, Trump was noticeably cautious, a contrast to his previous boasts throughout his 2024 election campaign, when he repeatedly promised swift economic gains and improved finances for ordinary Americans under his leadership.

During the interview, Maria Bartiromo introduced the topic of a potential recession by telling Trump:

“Look, I know you inherited a mess.”

This assertion runs contrary to the consensus of most financial experts, who argue that Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, left behind a stable economy. While inflation had been painfully high for an extended period, it was continuing to come down, and international trade conditions for the U.S. were largely steady.

Commerce Secretary Lutnick Rejects Recession Concerns

Meanwhile, on NBC’s Meet the Press, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed concerns that Trump’s aggressive global tariffs would trigger a recession.

“Absolutely not,” Lutnick said. “There’s going to be no recession in America.”

Lutnick went on to say:

“Anybody who bets against Donald Trump, it’s like the same people who thought Donald Trump wasn’t going to win a year ago… you are going to see over the next two years the greatest set of growth coming from America… I would never bet on recession, no chance.”

Summary

Trump’s comments come amid heightened economic uncertainty, with markets reacting sharply to tariff threats and global trade tensions. While the president predicts his policies will yield long-term benefits, many economists warn of the short-term risks associated with escalating trade wars and policy unpredictability.

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