Kelly Greer, Vice President of Trading at Galaxy Digital, has shared an analysis on X suggesting Bitcoin price could soar to $118,000 by the end of this year. Here’s a closer look at her reasoning:
- Historical Q4 Performance: Greer points out Bitcoin’s historically strong returns in the fourth quarter, citing an average increase of 85% since 2020. This pattern suggests a potentially significant year-end surge for Bitcoin.
- Market Underallocation: Despite the historical uptrend, Greer believes the market has not fully capitalized on this potential. Concerns about the U.S. presidential election and distractions from other assets like gold and China’s A-shares may have led to underinvestment in Bitcoin.
- Macroeconomic and Industry Factors: The backdrop for Bitcoin is highly favourable, influenced by global economic stimulus and regulatory advancements like BNY Mellon’s exemption to offer Bitcoin custody without heavy capital requirements. This, Greer argues, is a game-changing development for the industry.
- Positive ETF Flows and Mining Efficiency: Recent trends in ETF inflows and strategic partnerships between Bitcoin miners and hyper scalers indicate growing efficiency and investment in the sector. These developments are expected to reduce operational costs and enhance profitability.
- Supply and Demand Dynamics: Greer notes that supply overhangs are largely resolved, reducing the likelihood of price suppression from large sell-offs. Additionally, anticipated inflows from FTX distributions could further boost demand.
- Risks and Market Sentiment: While optimistic, Greer acknowledges risks such as potential Federal Reserve actions and broader market pullbacks. However, she remains positive about the inflow of investments and the reflexive nature of Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
Greer’s analysis suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin in Q4, backed by both historical trends and current market dynamics. If these factors align as predicted, Bitcoin could not only reach but potentially exceed the $118,000 mark, marking another significant milestone in its valuation history.
