President Joe Biden’s decision to authorize Ukraine’s use of long-range American missiles marks a pivotal shift in U.S. military policy, adhering to a pattern of initial reluctance followed by eventual approval of arms requests from Kyiv.
Is it too late for ATACMS to impact the war?
The strategic implications of deploying U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) are complex. The limited supply of ATACMS available to Ukraine suggests that while these missiles extend Kyiv’s reach, they won’t dramatically alter the battlefield dynamics. The missiles, capable of hitting targets up to 300 kilometres away, could potentially threaten numerous Russian military sites but are not sufficient in number to decisively impact the war’s outcome.
The broader strategic context
The authorization for Ukraine to use precision U.S. missiles deep inside Russia is provocative and escalates the conflict significantly. Despite Russia’s perceived military vulnerabilities, this move could provoke Moscow to reinforce its deterrence, potentially leading to retaliatory actions against civilian targets in Europe.
U.S. response to global escalations
The Biden administration frames its decision as a response to Russia’s escalation, specifically the deployment of North Korean troops into Kursk. This situation underscores the conflict’s expansion and the involvement of global actors, portraying the war as increasingly international and justifying the U.S. response.
As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, he inherits a sharply escalated conflict. The U.S. decision to increase military support for Ukraine reflects a strategic balance between supporting an ally and managing broader geopolitical risks. This policy shift is likely to influence U.S. foreign policy direction under the new administration, affecting global strategic dynamics.
