President Joe Biden’s unexpected exit from the presidential race has dramatically altered the 2024 election landscape. UBS analysts report that Vice President Kamala Harris has swiftly consolidated support among state delegations, positioning herself as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
With the Democratic National Convention set for a virtual roll call on August 1, Harris is expected to secure the majority of votes. UBS highlights that she faces no meaningful competition and has raised $125 million in two days, signalling strong Democratic enthusiasm.
UBS now predicts a more competitive race, adjusting their forecast to reflect a 40% chance of a Trump victory with a unified Congress and a 35% chance of Harris winning with a divided Congress. The Harris campaign must select a running mate by August 7, with a ceremonial vote to follow at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Here are the new probabilities:
- Democratic sweep: Harris with unified Congress — 10%
- Harris with divided Congress — 35%
- Republican sweep: Trump with unified Congress — 40%
- Trump with divided Congress — 15%
