Weekly Jobless Claims Higher Than Expected

US weekly jobless claims came in higher than expected, while import and export prices surged, raising new questions about inflation just as markets continue watching the Fed.

Despite the concerns, futures moved higher as investors reacted positively to easing geopolitical fears and ongoing earnings momentum.

Jobless Claims Move Higher

Initial jobless claims rose to 211,000, above expectations of 205,000 and marking the highest reading in a month. The previous week was revised lower to 199,000, keeping the broader labor market relatively strong.

Meanwhile:

Continuing claims increased to 1.782 million
This is the highest level seen since January 2024
The data may signal that workers are taking longer to find new jobs

Still, claims remain historically low and do not yet point to major labor weakness.

Retail Sales Slow but Stay Positive

April retail sales came in at +0.5%, matching expectations but slowing sharply from March’s revised +1.6% gain.

Excluding autos:

Retail sales rose 0.7%
Slightly below forecasts
Less than half the pace seen in March

Control group sales, often watched for GDP impact, also rose 0.5%, beating expectations. The data suggests consumers are still spending, but momentum is cooling.

Import Prices Deliver Inflation Warning

The biggest surprise came from trade prices. Import prices jumped 1.9% in April, well above expectations and the highest level since March 2022.

Even excluding fuel costs:

Import prices still rose 0.7%
Year-over-year growth reached 4.2%

Exports also surged:

Export prices climbed 3.3%
Annual growth reached 8.8%, the strongest since 2022

The move points to renewed inflation pressure across the economy.

Markets Focus on AI and Geopolitics

Despite the mixed data, futures remained positive. Investors were encouraged by:

Continued earnings strength
Optimism around US-China discussions
No major escalation in Iran developments
Strong AI momentum

One of the biggest winners was Cisco Systems, which surged after delivering strong results and reinforcing its AI strategy. Today’s data tells a complicated story.