Wall Street entered the week in cautious but resilient form. Stocks opened flat but turned slightly positive after former President Donald Trump softened his stance on trade, saying he was “open to negotiations” with the EU despite having already signed letters for a 30% tariff starting August 1. That hint of flexibility, combined with earnings optimism and anticipation of inflation data, helped nudge markets upward.
In a Bloomberg interview, BofA strategist Mark Cabana said CPI data this week could reflect early signs of tariff-driven inflation, as companies begin to pass costs onto consumers. Meanwhile, strategists noted that low expectations for Q2 earnings may leave room for surprises, especially as the big banks get ready to report.
| Index/Asset | Close | Δ Day |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6 268 ▲ 0.1 % | Rebounded after Trump’s “open to talks” comment |
| Dow Jones | 44 310 ▲ 0.1 % | Boeing, JPM led gains |
| Nasdaq Comp. | 20 545 ▲ 0.3 % | Meta and Netflix +1 % |
| 10-yr UST | 4.44 % ▲ 3 bp | Mild bear-steepening |
| WTI Crude | $74.65 ▼ 1.4 % | Cease-fire plan skips Russian oil |
| Bitcoin | $119 850 ▲ 1.4 % | Topped $122 k on Capitol Hill tail-winds |
Market Narrative
A brief rally in the morning faded to a crawl as three macro pillars dominated trader chatter:
- Tariff Cross-Fire. Fresh 30 % duties on EU and Mexican goods are set for Aug 1, while a 100 % “secondary” tariff threat against Russia stirred geopolitical waters. Industrials and autos lagged accordingly.
- Data Countdown. June CPI (Tuesday) and PPI-Retail Sales (Wed-Thu) will reveal whether earlier tariff rounds are starting to seep into consumer prices — and whether the Fed can still cut in September.
- Earnings Kick-Off. JPM, WFC and C launch the bank reporting season pre-market Tuesday, with options implying ±3 % one-day swings.
Sector Performance
Defensive groups and communication services carried the tape, while energy names wilted alongside crude and semis slipped on China export chatter.
| Top Gainers | % | Laggards | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communication Svcs | +0.9 | Energy | −1.3 |
| Utilities | +0.6 | Materials | −0.7 |
| Consumer Disc. | +0.4 | Industrials | −0.6 |
| Region | Move | Drivers |
|---|---|---|
| Europe (STOXX 600) | −0.4 % | Autos & luxury vulnerable to 30 % US tariff threat |
| Germany DAX | −0.5 % | BMW −2 %, Siemens −1 % |
| France CAC 40 | −0.6 % | LVMH −1.7 % |
| Mexico IPC | −0.8 % | Peso -0.6 %; metals exporters skid |
| Asia (Mon close) | Nikkei +0.2 %, Shanghai +0.3 % | China export beat; BOJ caution |
Crypto Corner – “Congressional Bid”
Lawmakers opened hearings on three high-impact bills — the CLARITY Act (stable-coin guardrails), the GENIUS Act (CFTC oversight for crypto-spot markets), and an Anti-CBDC measure. The regulatory tail-wind powered:
- Bitcoin: print high $122 300 → settle just under $120 K
- Coinbase: +2.1 %
- MicroStrategy: +1.9 %
- Marathon Digital: +4.3 %
More about: It’s ‘crypto week’ and Bitcoin is flying higher, passing $120,000
Fed vs. White House – Renovation Spat
Jerome Powell requested an Inspector-General review of the Fed’s $2.5 bn HQ retrofit after NEC chief Kevin Hassett likened the project to the “Palace of Versailles.” Hassett said lawyers are studying whether the president can fire Powell early, while ex-Fed governor Kevin Warsh called the price tag “outrageous,” stoking succession rumors for May 2026.
Street Sound-Bites
- Jay Hatfield, InfraCap: “Nobody wants to get offsides ahead of CPI; we’re in hold-your-sheet mode.”
- David Kelly, JPM AM: “Tariffs should stoke inflation and dent growth, yet 60/40 portfolios are up double-digits. The market assumes the Fed shoulders any shock.”
- RBC Capital: Bumped its year-end S&P 500 target to 6 250 on “durable earnings and liquidity through 2026.”
European bourses slipped as autos & luxury names priced in potential 30 % U.S. duties. The Mexican peso weakened 0.6 %. In Asia, Shanghai added 0.3 % after a surprise export-growth beat; the Nikkei inched up 0.2 %.
Tariff fatigue kept volatility compressed, but the next 24 hours deliver the real stress-tests: June CPI and megabank guidance. If tariff-driven price pressures look tame and banks keep credit costs contained, the summer melt-up could roll on. A hot CPI print, though, would quickly re-ignite rate-fear — right as earnings season revs into top gear.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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