Polymarket bettors have their eyes on Donald Trump, placing his odds of winning the November 2024 election at 69%, far ahead of Joe Biden’s 19%. The prediction market data reflects Trump’s strong lead just days after surviving an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania.
Joe Biden Urges Unity After Trump Assassination Attempt
According to a bet on Polymarket’s website, the former U.S. president significantly leads against Biden, who has only received 19% of all votes as of Tuesday night. Trailing behind Biden and Trump are current U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris with 6%, Michelle Obama with 2%, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr with 1%.
Two percent of bettors predict another Democratic politician could win the election, though with the Democratic National Convention (DNC) just shy of a month away, that option seems increasingly unlikely.
Trump’s Popularity Soars Post-Assassination Attempt
Trump’s overwhelming popularity among prediction market voters comes just two days after an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, targeted the controversial political figure. Trump was injured alongside two of the campaign event’s attendees, while Corey Comperatore, a 47-year-old father and firefighter, was mortally wounded.
“I’m supposed to be dead,” Trump told reporters en route to the National Republican Convention (RNC) in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, where he is expected to formally accept his party’s nomination in a speech Thursday. “I’m not supposed to be here.”
The one-time U.S. President is said to have thrown away his planned speech and is drafting a new one ahead of the convention. “It’s a very surreal experience, and you never know what you’re going to do until a thing like that happens,” Trump said.
Biden Calls for Calm
While the shooter’s motive remains unknown, Biden urged Americans to “lower the temperature” amid increasing political polarization across the U.S. “Disagreement is inevitable in American democracy. It’s human nature. But politics must never be a literal battlefield,” Biden tweeted. “We stand for an America not of extremism and fury, but of decency and grace.”
Trump Engages Crypto Community
The soon-to-be Republican nominee has largely embraced the world of cryptocurrencies on the campaign trail, despite previously admonishing digital assets as “highly volatile” and based “on thin air.” Biden, on the other hand, has supported the SEC’s regulation-by-enforcement approach to digital assets.
As president, Trump criticized Bitcoin for facilitating crime and for valuations based on “thin air.” But in his current campaign, he is all-in on crypto. In May, Trump invited several purchasers of his NFT collection to his Mar-a-Lago estate for a gala dinner where he doubled down on his pro-crypto stance. “I guess you could say it’s a form of currency and I think I’m for that,” he said. “More and more, I’m for that.”
However, with Trump’s recent change of plans for the upcoming RNC, it remains to be seen whether or not crypto will feature prominently in his highly-anticipated remarks Thursday night as the race to the November 2024 ballot box heats up
