As geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran intensify, experts are warning that global oil markets are dangerously complacent, with one analyst predicting that crude prices could soar beyond $200 a barrel. The growing fears stem from speculation that Israel might target Iran’s critical oil infrastructure in retaliation for recent missile attacks.
- Tensions escalate: Israel may retaliate against Iran for launching over 180 ballistic missiles, possibly targeting Iran’s oil facilities.
- Supply at risk: Iran, a key OPEC member, contributes around 4% of the global oil supply. Disruptions to its infrastructure could cause massive supply shortages.
- Price predictions: Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, told CNBC that oil prices could “easily” surpass $200 per barrel if Iranian oil installations are attacked.
- Key choke point: The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global oil exports, could also see heightened risks, adding further pressure on prices.
- Market complacency: Despite the potential for a major supply shock, some analysts, including Amrita Sen from Energy Aspects, believe the market underestimates the threat, comparing the situation to past events like the 2019 Saudi Aramco attack.
- U.S. involvement: Experts suggest the U.S. is likely advising Israel to avoid targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities, especially with upcoming U.S. elections.
As oil prices continue to rise, the potential for supply disruptions looms large, with energy markets bracing for further volatility. A prolonged conflict could drive up oil costs and shake global economic stability.
