Bitcoin could rally as high as $170,000 over the next 6–12 months, according to JPMorgan, which argues that the cryptocurrency looks undervalued compared to gold when adjusted for volatility.
The bank’s strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, said the crypto market has already corrected nearly 20% from recent highs, with the steepest drop in mid-October and another in early November after the $128 million Balancer DeFi hack shook investor confidence. However, they now see deleveraging largely complete, as futures open interest and liquidations have returned to normal levels.
“In CME futures, the opposite is true; there have been more liquidations in Ethereum than Bitcoin futures,” the analysts wrote. They added that while there have been some redemptions in exchange-traded funds in recent weeks, these were modest compared with inflows during the weeks ending Oct. 3 and Oct. 10.
“Overall, we believe that perpetual futures are the most important instruments to watch in the current juncture, and the message from the recent stabilization is that deleveraging in perpetual futures is likely behind us,” the analysts said.
JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin’s volatility relative to gold has dropped below 2 — meaning it requires about 1.8x more risk capital than gold. Based on this ratio, Bitcoin’s market cap of around $2.1 trillion would need to rise by about 67% to match the level of private investment in gold, implying a “mechanical” fair value of roughly $170,000.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $101,000, still well below that fair value estimate. Analysts believe stabilizing leverage, ETF inflows, and Fed policy easing could all support renewed momentum.
Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz said the market is still far from its peak, suggesting upcoming rate cuts could drive the next big leg of the bull run. On-chain data from CryptoQuant also shows large holders continue to accumulate Bitcoin, signaling confidence that this cycle still has room to grow.
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