JP Morgan Predicts Gold Will Hit $5,055 by 2026

JP Morgan expects gold prices to soar to an average of $5,055 per ounce by late 2026, marking a historic rally driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts, central bank buying, and rising stagflation risks.

According to the bank’s Global Commodities Strategy Team, led by Natasha Kaneva, institutional demand and monetary accommodation will form a “perfect setup” for sustained gold appreciation over the next 18 months. JP Morgan projects average quarterly purchases of 566 tonnes throughout 2026, the highest level on record.

Fed Easing to Fuel Gold’s Momentum

The forecast assumes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates several times through 2026 as growth slows and inflation remains elevated. Lower yields make non-interest-bearing assets like gold more attractive to investors and central banks seeking to hedge against currency debasement.

“Healthy earnings growth, monetary tailwinds, and AI-driven market liquidity have kept risk appetite strong, but the shift to safe havens will accelerate once the Fed begins easing,” Kaneva said. JP Morgan maintains gold as its “highest-conviction long-term buy” among commodities.

Central Banks and Dollar Diversification

Gold demand is also being fueled by central bank reserve diversification, with official sector purchases expected to exceed 2,200 tonnes annually. Countries including China, India, and Turkey have increased their gold holdings to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar.

JP Morgan analysts say the current rally is driven more by “dollar diversification than panic hedging,” signaling structural realignment rather than short-term fear trading.

Market Snapshot

Gold prices have already gained 57% in 2025, peaking at $4,381 per ounce in late October before consolidating near $4,150. JP Morgan sees the recent pullback as a “healthy pause in a supercycle,” not a reversal.

Stagflation and Fiscal Risks

The bank warns that stagflation — a mix of high inflation and slowing growth — could become the dominant macroeconomic theme of 2026. That environment, combined with soaring U.S. debt and political pressure on the Federal Reserve, may boost safe-haven demand.

“Concerns over Fed independence and fiscal expansion are adding a geopolitical risk premium to gold,” the report said.

Risks to the Outlook

JP Morgan noted that a strong U.S. dollar, higher-for-longer rates, or a sharp economic rebound could delay the move toward $5,000. However, long lead times for new mine projects and supply constraints suggest limited downside.

The forecast aligns with JP Morgan’s broader multi-year target of $6,000 by 2028, reflecting its view that gold will remain the core asset of a transitioning global financial system.

JP Morgan is doubling down on gold as the ultimate hedge against monetary instability, stagflation, and currency debasement, projecting record levels within the next year and a half.