70 millions of early votes have been cast. What could it mean for Election Day?

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, a record number of Americans are casting their early votes early. With over 70 million ballots already submitted, the shift towards early voting reflects a significant transformation in how elections are conducted and how voters engage with the democratic process. This surge in early voting, powered by mail-in ballots and early in-person polling, offers a glimpse into the evolving landscape of American politics, where convenience and accessibility are reshaping traditional voting behaviours.

• Massive Turnout: As of last Friday, over 70 million Americans have voted early. This is about 44% of the total votes from the 2020 election.
• Method Preferences: Many voters are choosing in-person early voting over mail-in ballots. This shift is most notable in states like Georgia. Georgia has already seen over 4 million early votes.
• State Variations: Some states, like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona, mainly offer early voting through in-person absentee ballots. Voters must request and submit these ballots themselves.
• Voting Dynamics: Early voting has traditionally been popular among Democrats. However, this year, more Republicans are voting early in battleground states.
• Analysis of Partisan Shifts: Charles Stewart from MIT notes that many of the early Republican voters were also Election Day voters in 2020. This might reduce the number of Republican votes on the actual Election Day this year.
• Demographic Insights: Historically, women make up the majority of the electorate. This trend continues with early voting this year.
• Racial Voting Patterns: White voters are more likely to use mail-in ballots. Black voters, influenced by historical and cultural factors, prefer to vote in person.
• Potential Impacts: The high early turnout suggests that the total voter participation in 2024 could match or exceed the record set in 2020.

Early voting trends indicate a potentially high turnout for the 2024 election, with significant shifts in how and when people are voting. These patterns not only reflect changes in voter preferences but also adjustments in party strategies and the impact of state voting laws.