As the global economy faces ongoing challenges, analysts suggest paying close attention to key commodities entering the third quarter (Q3) of 2024.
Gold Price Forecast
Gold, silver, and copper have rallied this year, and Nikos Tzabouras from Tradu believes the trend may continue due to geopolitical tensions, upcoming elections, and uncertain monetary policies. Central banks’ buying sprees, especially from China, could push gold prices to new records. However, the Fed’s stance on interest rates may support the dollar, potentially limiting gold’s rise.
Oil Consumption
Oil consumption is expected to slow due to net zero emissions efforts and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs). Despite increased supply from countries like the US, a rebound in oil prices in Q3 is possible due to OPEC+ supply cuts. Yet, reaching $100 per barrel remains unlikely due to potential demand destruction.
Copper Supply Expectations
Copper hit record highs earlier this year. Tzabouras predicts further gains driven by increased consumption for AI and clean energy, alongside tightened supply from major miners. However, risks include China’s property sector issues and slowing EV adoption.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural gas demand is set to grow, driven by industrial consumption in Asia, despite murky supply prospects as major producers cut output targets. Natural gas is considered a bridge energy source, somewhat shielded from the fossil fuel shift, though Europe’s reduced usage and warm weather pose challenges.
Should Investors Focus on Commodities? – Nikos Tzabouras’ commentary paints a complex picture of the commodities market in Q3. While some commodities like copper and natural gas seem poised for growth due to supply constraints and rising demand, others face headwinds. Oil, for instance, is caught between a potential rebound driven by production cuts and slowing demand due to the green energy transition.
