Bitcoin is back under heavy pressure, with options markets now signaling a sharply darker outlook heading into year-end.
According to Derive.xyz, there is now a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes 2025 below $90,000, a dramatic shift that underscores how quickly sentiment has flipped after the October peak. At the same time, traders assign only a 30% probability that Bitcoin ends the year above $100,000.
Bitcoin last traded around $86,600, down more than 4% on Thursday and touching its lowest level since April. The coin has now fallen almost 30% from its early-October record of $126,223 and is on track for its first negative year since 2022.
Macro Pressure Returns
The decline has been fueled by a series of macro headwinds:
- The Fed’s tone has turned less dovish, with officials warning inflation is still too high.
- Hopes for a December rate cut have faded to roughly 40%, keeping pressure on risk assets.
- Stronger-than-expected September jobs data (+119K vs. 50K expected) reduced the need for immediate easing.
Risk sentiment remains fragile across markets, with Bitcoin once again trading like a high-beta macro asset.
Trend Signals Turn Bearish
Technically, Bitcoin has broken below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling that trend-following funds are pulling capital. Sentiment gauges confirm the bearish shift:
- 30-day put skew deepened from -2.9% to -5.3%, showing traders aggressively paying for downside protection.
- Implied volatility jumped from 41% to 49% in two weeks.
- 180-day volatility climbed to 49% from 46%, signaling long-term uncertainty.
A cluster of 13,800 put contracts at the $85,000 strike (expiring Dec. 26) is now one of the most closely watched positions in the market.
Liquidations Mount, Pressure Builds
Derive.xyz estimates that over the past month, crypto markets saw $8.25 billion in liquidations, a sign of forced selling hitting both long and short leverage at once. Analysts warn that the combination of tightening financial conditions and shaky tech valuations could push Bitcoin toward $75,000 before any stabilization.
Still, Some See a Bounce Setting Up
Not everyone is bearish. Fundstrat’s Sean Farrell argues that Bitcoin is nearing a “value zone,” with oversold signals flashing and last week’s forced liquidations clearing out excess leverage.
He believes conditions are in place for a sharp counter-trend rally, even if the broader trend is still under pressure.
Crypto Market Follows Bitcoin Lower
The broader crypto complex also weakened Thursday:
- Ether fell more than 3%, trading below $3,000.
- XRP dropped 2.3%.
- Dogecoin was flat but fragile.
Bitcoin’s decline even spilled into equities, with traders unwinding tech-crypto crossover positions despite Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings earlier this week.
Bitcoin is back in a macro-driven market where the Fed, jobs data and rate expectations dictate direction. With implied volatility rising and put demand building, bears currently control the tape. But oversold conditions mean a sharp rebound remains possible; the next big move will depend on how risk markets digest the evolving rate outlook.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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