From bromance to battlefield, the Trump–Musk split isn’t just personal—it could cost Elon tens of billions and shake the foundations of Tesla and SpaceX.
Once inseparable political allies, Donald Trump and Elon Musk are now locked in one of the most expensive feuds in corporate history.
In just 48 hours, Trump threatened to strip Musk’s companies of government support, Tesla stock plunged 14%, and $152 billion in market value vanished. On Friday, Trump torched peace talks, mocked Musk on live TV, and may ditch his Tesla as their once-powerful alliance burns in public view ( More about: “You Mean Man Who Lost His Mind?” — Trump Slams Door on Musk)
But beyond the headlines, the real question is this:
How much damage can Trump and the federal government actually do to Musk’s empire?
SpaceX: The $68 Billion Target
SpaceX may be the most exposed. With nearly $89 billion in federal contracts on the books—including $21 billion already received—SpaceX has become deeply embedded in US space, defense, and satellite infrastructure.
- It’s the only company currently capable of ferrying astronauts to and from the ISS.
- It manages Pentagon satellite launches and is developing hundreds of military spy satellites.
- It powers Starlink, which is part of a $42 billion broadband expansion project backed by the federal government.
If Trump were to follow through on canceling contracts—as he threatened Thursday on Truth Social—SpaceX could theoretically lose up to $68 billion in future income.
“His surface area for attack is remarkable,” one veteran auto executive told Forbes. “Things Elon thought had been swept under the rug could come back to life.”
The White House has already paused Starlink funding and could push the FAA, NASA, and FCC to slow or halt approvals for future missions.
Tesla: EV Credits, Regulatory Heat & Robotaxis
Tesla’s exposure is more nuanced but still massive.
- Over the past six years, Tesla has earned $8 billion from emissions credits and $3.4 billion in EV tax incentives.
- Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill” would eliminate EV subsidies and charging infrastructure funds, potentially costing Tesla over $3 billion annually, according to JPMorgan.
- The Trump administration already paused $3 billion earmarked for EV charging stations—a hit to Tesla’s Supercharger expansion plan.
Meanwhile, Tesla faces six open federal safety probes related to Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, and Trump could push the NHTSA, DOJ, and SEC to reignite or expand investigations into:
- Tesla’s self-driving promises
- Labor practices
- Stock manipulation (from past tweets like “funding secured”)
Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi rollout in Austin could also be blocked with pressure from federal or state regulators.
X, Neuralink, xAI: Collateral Damage
Other Musk ventures like X (Twitter), Neuralink, and xAI rely heavily on regulatory goodwill. Now, Musk may be facing:
- SEC scrutiny over his Twitter acquisition
- FDA pressure on Neuralink testing
- FTC & DOJ oversight of xAI data practices
- Potential loss of DOD/NASA interest in AI and biotech contracts
These aren’t abstract risks — they’re levers Trump can easily pull.
The Political Price
For Trump, punishing Musk isn’t just personal—it’s strategic. Musk was once his most valuable tech ally, contributing nearly $300 million to pro-Trump PACs in 2024. Their public breakup means:
- Trump no longer needs to shield Tesla and SpaceX
- He can position himself as tough on “elitist tech billionaires”
- And he can shift attention from mounting criticism over the cost of his tax bill
But this shift isn’t without consequences for the president either. SpaceX is so vital to national security that some experts warn retaliation could backfire militarily or trigger calls for nationalizing Musk’s assets.
Can Elon Survive?
Yes—but not without scars.
“Musk has ample resources to sustain losses, reshuffle, and rebuild,” said Fordham’s Paul Levinson. “But the short-term hits to his fortune, brand, and leverage could be brutal.”
Musk has already lost $27 billion in personal wealth since the feud erupted. If Trump sustains pressure, Musk could be looking at:
- Losing core contracts and federal support
- Delays or failure of key projects (robotaxi, Starship)
- Investor flight due to reputational and political instability
Estimated Damage at a Glance
| Company | Main Risk | Estimated Exposure |
|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | Federal contract cancellation | Up to $68B in future revenue |
| Tesla | EV credit + emissions rollbacks | ~$3.2B/year (plus reputational hit) |
| Starlink | Broadband contract freeze | Multi-billion loss & slowed expansion |
| Neuralink / xAI | Regulatory action | Unknown, but high sensitivity |
This isn’t just a spat between two egos. It’s a political earthquake with real economic aftershocks. Elon Musk may have built an empire on innovation—but without Washington, the foundation may now be cracking.
Trump has the tools. Musk has the vulnerability. And the damage has already begun.
The bromance is over. The empire is under siege.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Related:
Timeline of Elon Musk and Donald Trump “Break Up”
Sources:
- CNN – How much damage could Donald Trump do to Elon Musk?
- NPR – What the Trump-Musk breakup may mean for SpaceX and Tesla
- Forbes – Tesla’s Newest Nightmare Is Donald Trump
- Reuters – From bros to foes: how the unlikely Trump-Musk relationship imploded
- The Independent – Elon Musk’s business empire was built on government help. How badly could Trump hurt him?
- USASpending.gov – Federal awards to SpaceX and Tesla (search: “SpaceX” or “Tesla”)
