The situation in Syria is rapidly escalating as insurgents, led by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group, have made significant advances, including reaching the suburbs of Damascus for the first time since 2018. This development threatens the stability of President Bashar Assad’s government, prompting concerns of a broader conflict.
- Insurgents’ Gains:
- HTS and allied groups have captured major cities, including Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, and Sweida.
- They now threaten Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, which is critical for maintaining the link between Damascus and the pro-Assad coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus.
- Fighters have encircled Damascus suburbs, heightening fears of a direct assault on the capital.
- Government Response:
- The Syrian military has redeployed forces to defend Homs and southern Damascus.
- State media denied rumors of Assad fleeing the country, asserting his presence in Damascus.
- International Involvement:
- Russia, a key Assad ally, is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine, weakening its support for Syria.
- Iran’s regional influence faces setbacks as U.S.-backed Kurdish forces (SDF) captured parts of Deir el-Zour, disrupting supply lines to Iran-backed militias.
- Diplomatic Efforts:
- The UN’s special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has called for urgent talks in Geneva to implement UN Resolution 2254, which outlines a transitional political process.
- Foreign ministers from Iran, Russia, and Turkey met in Qatar to discuss Syria’s future, highlighting concerns over the nation’s territorial integrity.
- Humanitarian Impact:
- Thousands are fleeing to Lebanon, and supplies in Damascus are running low, with staples like sugar sold at inflated prices.
- Shops in the capital remain closed amid fears of an imminent battle.
A successful insurgent capture of Homs could isolate Damascus and further destabilize Assad’s government. The swift insurgent advances may force accelerated diplomatic efforts, though divisions among international players complicate prospects for a political resolution. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further humanitarian and geopolitical repercussions if the conflict escalates further.
