Gold meteoric rally cooled on Thursday, with prices slipping nearly 1% after comments from Federal Reserve officials tempered expectations for aggressive rate cuts. Still, Goldman Sachs analysts argue the precious metal’s run is far from over, pointing to strong inflows from private investors and renewed central bank buying.
Spot gold hit a record $3,896.49 per ounce earlier in the session before easing to $3,828.75. U.S. gold futures settled at $3,853.20, down 1.1%. The pullback followed remarks from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who said the central bank should be “cautious” with further easing after last month’s cut.
Even so, momentum remains strong. Gold is up 46% year-to-date, fueled by safe-haven demand amid the U.S. government shutdown, ongoing trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. Analysts at StoneX said the environment remains “supportive for safe-haven demand” with tariffs and global hotspots still unresolved.
Goldman’s Bullish Call
Goldman Sachs, long one of Wall Street’s biggest gold bulls, reaffirmed its $4,000 mid-2026 forecast and $4,300 end-2026 target, but said the risks are now skewed even higher.
- Inflows into gold-backed ETFs have already surpassed Goldman’s models.
- Just 1% of U.S. Treasury market assets rotating into bullion could push gold toward $5,000 an ounce, the bank estimated.
- Private investors seeking diversification present a “large upside risk.”
Market Context
- Central banks are resuming purchases after a summer lull, adding to upward pressure.
- Speculative positioning explains only a fraction of the recent breakout, suggesting structural demand is driving the surge.
- Silver, platinum, and palladium also fell Thursday, tracking gold’s retreat.
Gold remains Goldman’s “highest-conviction long commodity recommendation.” With the Fed expected to cut rates again this month and Washington’s fiscal standoff weighing on the dollar, investors are increasingly betting the rally has more room to run.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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