The 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump as the main candidates, carries consequences for China’s economy and global standing.
If Trump wins, a return to aggressive trade policies is expected, potentially leading to further tariffs, sanctions, and economic strain for China. Tariff hikes under a second Trump term could severely hurt China’s export sectors, worsening its already fragile economy.
Conversely, a Harris presidency would likely pursue a multilateral, diplomatic approach. Although Harris would maintain pressure on China, particularly in technology and trade, she would emphasize cooperation, offering more stability. This could lead to potential collaboration on global issues like climate change.
Key details:
- Trump’s return could mean increased tariffs, sanctions, and worsening U.S.-China relations.
- Harris might maintain competition but also prioritize diplomacy and multilateral engagement.
- Both candidates are expected to enforce restrictions on Chinese access to U.S. technology.
- China’s reliance on exports and its tech industry are key vulnerabilities.
The election’s outcome will have significant repercussions for China, with Trump posing a greater threat of economic isolation, while Harris might offer a balance between competition and cooperation. Both paths, however, will challenge China’s ambitions, especially in technology leadership.
