UBS analysts predict Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will fall short of market expectations for Q2 deliveries, forecasting around 420,000 deliveries—below the 445,000 consensus. They anticipate the stock to react more to actual results than the headline figure.
UBS expects US deliveries to be slightly below Q1, with a potential boost from May’s financing offer for Model Y. European deliveries are projected to decline, while China’s deliveries show modest growth.
Despite anticipated improvements in US and China deliveries, UBS warns of potential impacts on gross margins. While Tesla’s AI Day on August 8th may stir interest, UBS believes the financial impact of AI initiatives is more long-term. Focus in the near term will be on a new vehicle reveal aimed at a lower price point. UBS suggests Tesla’s stock may diverge from current fundamentals as investors look towards future growth and AI potential.
