President Donald Trump is doubling down on his belief that a personal call with Chinese President Xi Jinping could reboot failing US-China trade talks, even as officials on both sides express doubt about any breakthrough.
“The president is obsessed with having a call with Xi,” said a source familiar with the negotiations, adding Trump believes he can solve the $600 billion trade impasse “mano a mano.”
The White House confirmed this week that a Trump-Xi call is “likely,” although no date has been officially set. The push comes as trade negotiations stall despite a temporary Geneva truce that had lowered tariffs on both sides. But since then, mistrust and unmet expectations have derailed progress.
Fragile Truce Already Fraying
- Tariff Deal Recap: In May, the US agreed to reduce tariffs from 145% to 30%, while China cut its own to 10% and promised to ease restrictions on rare earth exports, a critical supply for US automakers, tech firms, and defence industries.
- But now, Chinese shipments of rare earth magnets have slowed, triggering warnings from automakers about possible factory shutdowns.
- Meanwhile, China accuses the US of violating the 90-day de-escalation agreement by issuing new export warnings targeting Huawei and discouraging US firms from using Chinese semiconductors.
Fentanyl Deadlock
A key unresolved issue is fentanyl. Chinese officials say they’ve presented two proposals since February to tackle precursor shipments. But US officials remain skeptical, and no formal response has been issued.
“Everyone agrees that for any additional progress to happen on tariffs, the gateway is fentanyl,” said a US business official.
Xi Seen as Cautious, Trump as Unpredictable
Beijing remains wary of direct leader-level diplomacy with Trump, whom it sees as volatile and performative. Past episodes — like Trump’s media-centric meetings with Zelenskyy and Ramaphosa — have raised fears of public spectacle.
“The PRC sees President Trump as unpredictable,” said Rush Doshi, a former White House official. “It’s not usual practice for PRC diplomats to put their leader in a risky or potentially embarrassing position.”
Strategic Risks and Political Theater
While Trump insiders argue a call is a low-risk, high-reward move — either China cooperates or Trump can blame Beijing for obstruction — foreign policy experts warn that jumping to a leader-level discussion too soon could undermine future negotiations.
“Trump is a dealmaker. Xi is not — he’s a party man,” said Harry Broadman, a former US trade official. “At best, they agree on vague principles. That’s not going to satisfy Trump.”
Despite internal pressure, no call is yet scheduled, and China has not confirmed any plans to engage. Instead, Beijing has issued pointed rebukes, accusing the US of “stirring up new economic and trade frictions” and failing to reflect on its own behaviour.
The clock is ticking: automakers are warning of supply disruptions, investor confidence is shaky, and geopolitical tensions are intensifying. Whether Trump’s personal diplomacy can deliver results — or deepen the divide — remains to be seen.
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