At 9 a.m. EDT today, Tesla (TSLA) will drop its Q1 delivery numbers — and the Street is bracing for what could be one of the company’s worst year-over-year performances in nearly a decade.
The delivery print will be the first hard data showing the market impact of CEO Elon Musk’s increasingly political alignment with President Trump, which analysts say is alienating Tesla’s global customer base and rattling investor confidence.
Consensus vs. Reality
- FactSet consensus: 408,000 Q1 deliveries (+5% YoY)
- Revised Street expectations: 351,000–375,000
- Kalshi prediction market: 353,000 (-9% YoY)
If 353K or lower is reported, it would mark Tesla’s weakest delivery growth since 2017 and could further unravel the stock, which isalready down 27% YTD.
Global Backlash & Brand Damage
Musk’s ties to Trump and far-right European parties have triggered:
- Boycotts and protests in major EU markets
- Sales collapses in France, Sweden, Denmark, and Netherlands
- Brand defacement and vandalism tied to political protests
“The anti-Musk and brand issues are clearly at play and a major factor in this weak 1Q delivery number,” said Dan Ives (Wedbush).
“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry,” added Ryan Brinkman (JPMorgan).
Musk donated $288M to GOP causes last year. His role in the Trump administration is now being seen as both strategic and self-inflicted brand damage.
Stock Movement & Investor Risk
- TSLA stock rallied +6% Tuesday, ahead of the release
- Still down 27% since January 2
- Down >40% from ATH (December)
Musk acknowledged the pressure Sunday:
“Massive pressure on me, and Tesla I guess, to, you know, I don’t know, stop” — referring to his political activism.
Tesla’s Next Chapter?
“Tesla’s softer auto deliveries are emblematic of a company in the transition from an automotive ‘pure play’ to a highly diversified play on AI and robotics,” said Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas.
Translation: if Tesla’s core EV business is faltering, bulls are betting on autonomy, AI, and energy.
Q1 delivery numbers aren’t just a performance metric — they’re a referendum on Musk’s politicization of Tesla. If today’s print misses expectations, the selloff could deepen — unless investors fully pivot to the “Tesla as AI” narrative.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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