Markets are not focused on the decision itself. They are focused on what comes next.

No Rate Cut, No Clear Direction

Forecasts suggest the Fed will keep its benchmark rate in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, continuing a wait-and-see approach.

Recent data shows a mixed picture:

• Inflation jumped to 3.3%, rising sharply from previous months
• The US added 178,000 jobs in March, showing some resilience
• But hiring remains slow and uncertain

This leaves policymakers stuck between two risks: inflation staying too high and growth slowing too much.

According to officials, there is currently no “obvious path” forward for rates.

Oil, War, and Tariffs Complicate the Outlook

The situation is being made worse by external shocks.

• Oil prices are rising sharply, driven by the Iran conflict
• Tariffs and supply chain disruptions are adding to price pressure
• Ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz is increasing uncertainty

These factors could keep inflation elevated for longer than expected, forcing the Fed to remain cautious.

Some policymakers are even warning about a worst-case scenario: stagflation, where growth slows while inflation stays high.

All Eyes on Powell’s Message

Investors are now waiting for signals from Jerome Powell. His upcoming press conference could be one of his final appearances as Fed Chair, making it even more important for markets.

The key question: Will the Fed prioritize fighting inflation… or protecting the job market?

His tone could shape expectations for the rest of 2026.

Leadership Transition Adds Market Uncertainty

At the same time, a major leadership change is approaching. Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to replace Powell as Fed Chair.

Warsh’s confirmation appears to be moving forward, which could lead to:

• New policy frameworks
• Changes in how the Fed communicates with markets
• A potential shift in long-term strategy

However, analysts warn that any transition could increase market volatility, especially if tensions rise over the Fed’s independence.

What It Means for Markets and Consumers

For now, stability in rates means:

• Borrowing costs remain high
• Consumers may continue facing expensive loans and credit
• Businesses may stay cautious on hiring and investment

At the same time, persistent inflation means relief is not coming quickly. The Fed is not acting… because it can’t act with confidence.

• Inflation is rising again
• Growth signals are mixed
• Geopolitical risks are intensifying
• Leadership is about to change

The result: a central bank stuck in the middle, waiting for clarity. And until that clarity comes, markets are likely to remain volatile and uncertain.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: Markets Face Crucial Week as Big Tech Earnings and Fed Decision Loom

The post No Fed rate move expected as Powell-Warsh shift looms. What to know first appeared on Finblog.

Nearly a year after Donald Trump launched his “Liberation Day” tariffs, the results are becoming clear and they are far from what was promised.

On April 2, 2025, Trump imposed a universal 10% tariff, with additional reciprocal tariffs reaching up to 50% on major trading partners, using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). He framed it as a turning point:

“Foreign nations will finally be asked to pay for the privilege of access to our market.”

But one year later, the reality looks very different. Prices went up, not down. Instead of protecting consumers, tariffs pushed prices higher.

Economists estimate that consumer goods prices rose nearly 2%, with 90–95% of tariff costs passed directly to consumers. That means households, not foreign producers, carried most of the burden.

Separate analysis shows US households paid around $1,000 more on average over the past year due to tariff-related costs.

Even now, there has been little relief, as price pressures remain embedded across supply chains.

Manufacturing did not recover.

The core promise of tariffs was clear: bring manufacturing back to the US.

That did not happen.

• Manufacturing jobs fell by around 100,000 in 2025
• Investment and construction spending declined after tariffs were introduced
• Production growth remained weak and marginal

Instead of a boom, the sector showed continued weakness across key indicators, including employment, investment, and business activity.

Experts point to structural issues.

US companies still rely heavily on imported intermediate goods, meaning tariffs often increase production costs rather than support domestic output. At the same time, labor shortages and high wages make reshoring difficult.

Trade deficit grew, not shrank

Another key goal was to reduce the US trade deficit. But the opposite happened. Despite aggressive tariffs, the trade deficit actually expanded, showing that tariffs alone were not enough to rebalance global trade flows.

This highlights a deeper issue: Trade is driven by structural demand, not just tariffs. Legal backlash changed everything

By early 2026, the policy faced a major turning point. The US Supreme Court ruled most of the emergency tariffs unconstitutional, forcing the government to begin a complex refund process for businesses that had paid them.

That process is still unfolding and could trigger waves of litigation between companies and consumers, especially over who ultimately absorbs or recovers the costs.

And even here, uncertainty remains. Refunds may not immediately reach consumers, creating what experts describe as a “vicious cycle” of delayed impact.

Tariffs are still here, just in a different form

Despite the ruling, tariffs did not disappear.

Within hours, the Trump administration introduced a new global 10% tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, with a 150-day limit, and has already suggested raising it to 15%.

So while the original tariffs were struck down, the policy direction remains unchanged.

One year later, the outcome is clear:

• Higher prices for consumers
• Job losses instead of job growth
• No meaningful manufacturing revival
• Wider trade deficits
• Ongoing legal and economic uncertainty

At the same time, global trade tensions have intensified, and supply chains remain under pressure.

So here is the real question markets are now asking: If tariffs failed to deliver growth but increased costs… will doubling down on them change anything?

That is the debate shaping the next phase of US trade policy.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post One Year After ‘Liberation Day’: Tariffs Hit Prices, Jobs, and Growth first appeared on Finblog.

Businesses across industries are now racing to understand how to recover tariffs they paid under emergency powers that the Supreme Court ruled unlawful. While the decision invalidated many of those duties, it did not outline a formal refund process, leaving companies to rely on existing administrative and legal channels.

What Changed

The Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act exceeded presidential authority because the law does not permit a president to impose sweeping tariffs without Congress. That decision effectively voided many of the duties collected over the past year and sent the issue back to lower courts to determine next steps.

Estimates suggest $150 billion to $200 billion in tariffs could be eligible for refunds, according to analyses from policy groups and major banks. That potential payout is enormous, and it immediately triggered legal and operational questions across corporate America.

How Companies Can Request Refunds

Legal experts say firms must act proactively rather than wait for government guidance. The main routes include:

• Administrative corrections through Customs and Border Protection for recent imports.
• Formal protests for older tariff payments filed within statutory deadlines.
• Court appeals in the US Court of International Trade if claims are denied.

Trade attorneys say importers should begin reviewing past filings now to identify which payments qualify. Missing deadlines could permanently block recovery.

Why the Process Could Be Slow

Even if refunds are approved, companies may wait months or longer to receive them. The reason is simple: the system was not designed for claims on this scale.

Customs brokers and compliance teams are already stretched handling daily filings and shifting trade rules. A sudden surge of refund requests from thousands of importers could overwhelm administrative systems and delay processing.

More about: 6 Questions on the Future of Trump’s Tariffs

One trade specialist warned that firms that underestimate the workload risk financial reporting delays or compliance mistakes, especially if they request refunds on incorrect tariff classifications.

Legal Battles Already Underway

More than 1,000 lawsuits have already been filed in trade court by companies seeking reimbursement. The outcome of those cases will likely shape how refunds are handled nationwide.

Attorneys say lower-court rulings and potential guidance from customs authorities will determine whether companies must individually pursue claims or if a broader refund framework emerges.

Government Reaction

Officials have signaled that refunds, if required, would take time. Treasury leaders say payments would likely be distributed gradually rather than all at once. Meanwhile, political tensions remain high, with criticism of the ruling and warnings that the issue could be tied up in litigation for years.

Why It Matters for Businesses

For companies that paid large tariffs, the ruling could represent a major financial opportunity. But recovering that money will require careful analysis, legal filings, and patience.

The court decision removed the tariffs, but it did not automatically return the cash. Firms that want refunds must take action, follow strict procedures, and prepare for a long process before any payments arrive.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post How Should Businesses Seek Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling? first appeared on Finblog.

In a series of posts on Truth Social, Trump wrote:

“Any Country that wants to ‘play games’ with the ridiculous Supreme Court decision… will be met with a much higher Tariff, and worse, than that which they just recently agreed to. BUYER BEWARE!!!”

The warning signals that Washington’s tariff strategy is shifting — not retreating.

Supreme Court Blocks Emergency Tariffs

The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that Trump had overstepped his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The decision invalidated most of the emergency-based tariffs introduced last year, creating immediate legal and financial uncertainty.

Trump responded within hours by announcing a new global tariff under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act.

• Initially set at 10%
• Raised to 15%, the maximum allowed under the statute
• The 10% rate took effect at 12:01 AM Tuesday, according to US Customs
• It remains unclear when the 15% rate will formally begin

Section 122 allows tariffs to stay in place for 150 days without congressional approval.

Trump also signaled he could pursue Section 301 investigations into alleged unfair trade practices and even suggested imposing new license fees, though no details were provided.

Europe, India, UK Reassess Deals

The ruling has forced key US partners to reassess their agreements.

The European Union delayed ratification of its US trade deal, seeking clarity on how the new tariffs would apply.

Under the EU framework:

• Goods would face a 15% US tariff
• Exemptions included aircraft parts, critical minerals, food items, and pharmaceutical ingredients

India postponed scheduled talks aimed at finalizing its own agreement.

The UK said it is pressing Washington for clarification on whether its previously negotiated 10% tariff arrangement will remain valid under the new structure.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer insisted that policy remains unchanged.

“The legal tool to implement it might change, but the policy hasn’t changed,” Greer said.

Markets React to Renewed Trade Uncertainty

Wall Street closed lower as investors digested the renewed tariff risks.

On Monday:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: –1.65%
• S&P 500: –1.02%
• Nasdaq Composite: –1.01%
• The US dollar weakened against the euro and yen

Analysts cited tariff uncertainty and broader AI-related volatility as key drivers behind the selloff.

Political and Legal Battles Ahead

A group of 22 Democratic senators introduced legislation that would require refunds for tariffs collected under the now-invalidated emergency powers. The proposal faces an uncertain future in Congress.

The temporary 15% tariff structure will expire after 150 days unless extended by lawmakers. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer has already said Democrats would block an extension, and some Republicans have expressed skepticism.

Trump, however, argued that he does not need congressional approval to pursue tariffs under alternative legal authorities.

The Supreme Court ruling may have blocked Trump’s emergency tariffs, but it has not softened US trade policy. Instead, it has triggered a new phase of tariff tools, legal maneuvering, and global uncertainty.

For now, the message from Washington is clear: trade commitments must stand, or face higher costs.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: How Should Businesses Seek Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling?

UK says ‘nothing is off the table’ in response to US tariffs

The post Trump threatens countries that ‘play games’ with existing trade deals first appeared on Finblog.

The warning comes after Donald Trump announced that, starting Tuesday, the US would impose a 15% tariff on imports from all countries under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. The move follows last week’s 6–3 ruling by the Supreme Court, which struck down most of Trump’s earlier tariffs introduced under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

What changes — and what doesn’t

The UK government said the majority of its existing sector-specific deals with the US are not expected to change, including tariffs covering: Cars, Steel and aluminium, Pharmaceuticals, Aerospace

These sectors account for the majority of UK exports to the US.

However, goods outside those negotiated categories would face the new 15% rate if implemented.

Trump initially announced a 10% replacement tariff after the court ruling, then raised it to 15% over the weekend. Section 122 tariffs are temporary and expire after 150 days unless Congress extends them. (More about: Trump Says He Will Raise Global Tariff to 15%)

Why the UK could be hit harder

Analysis from Global Trade Alert suggests the UK could be among the worst-affected countries. Britain had previously negotiated a 10% tariff arrangement with Washington, meaning a universal 15% rate would leave it worse off relative to some countries that already faced higher duties.

By contrast, countries such as China and Brazil, which were already under steeper tariff regimes, may see less relative change under a flat global rate.

EU puts deal on hold

The European Union has put its own US trade deal “on hold until further notice,” citing legal uncertainty after the court decision.

Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s trade committee, said the situation is “more uncertain than ever” and called for legal clarity before proceeding further.

Trump responded on social media that countries attempting to “play games” over the ruling could face even higher tariffs.

UK response: talks ongoing

Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle said he had raised concerns directly with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, emphasizing the need to honor existing agreements.

The prime minister’s spokesman described the situation as “evolving” and confirmed discussions are continuing “at all levels.”

Business reaction

Industry groups are calling for urgent clarity.

Andy Haldane, president of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the UK could “sit toward the bottom of the league table” of US trading partners if the 15% tariff takes effect.

Manufacturers warned that exporters need immediate guidance on how shipments will be treated at US ports, as uncertainty itself can disrupt contracts and pricing.

The Supreme Court ruling reshaped US tariff policy, but it did not end trade tensions. Instead, it has introduced a temporary 15% global tariff framework that leaves allies like the UK reassessing their position, while trying to avoid a wider trade conflict.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: Betting on Europe During Trump’s Second Term

Coordinated European sell‑off of US bonds is ‘social media fantasy’

EU Plans Critical Minerals Partnership With US to Counter China

The post UK says ‘nothing is off the table’ in response to US tariffs first appeared on Finblog.

The court’s 6–3 decision, led by Chief Justice John Roberts, found that the Constitution grants Congress, not the president, the power to levy taxes such as tariffs. The ruling struck down duties imposed using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a sanctions law Trump had relied on to justify broad import taxes.

Trump responded within hours, declaring he would act under different legal authorities.

“Today I will sign an order to impose a 10% global tariff under Section 122 over and above our normal tariffs already being charged.”

He insisted the ruling only blocked one method and claimed other statutes make his authority “more powerful,” citing Sections 232, 201, 301, and 122 as alternative legal paths.

Court Ruling Reshapes Trade Strategy

The decision limits the speed and scale of future tariffs:

• Section 301 allows retaliatory tariffs but typically requires investigations lasting up to 12 months.
• Section 122 permits faster action but caps duties at 15% and limits them to 150 days unless Congress approves an extension.
• National-security tariffs already in place remain unaffected, according to the administration.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously acknowledged these alternatives are less efficient and less powerful than the emergency powers Trump originally used.

Political Fallout

Trump sharply criticized the ruling and several justices, calling the decision “deeply disappointing” and accusing unnamed members of lacking courage. Vice President JD Vance also condemned the outcome, saying it showed Congress had not truly intended to give presidents authority to regulate imports.

Despite the setback, the White House signaled it will continue pursuing tariffs through other legal channels and launch new investigations into foreign trade practices.

Global and Market Impact

The ruling introduces fresh uncertainty for businesses and trading partners:

• Importers may rush shipments during the limited window before new tariffs fully take effect.
• Companies face unpredictable policy shifts as alternative legal routes are tested.
• Analysts warn that repeated changes could reshape supply chains and trade alliances.

Even before the decision, Trump’s tariff campaign had already altered global trade flows, pushing some countries to deepen ties with new partners while reducing reliance on US markets.

The court removed one of Trump’s strongest trade tools, but his immediate move to impose a temporary global tariff signals the broader tariff strategy is far from over.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Trump announces new 10% ‘global’ tariffs after US Supreme Court decision first appeared on Finblog.

What the Ruling Changes

The judgment could cut the average tariff rate faced by exporters selling into the US from about 15% to roughly half that level. However, it does not eliminate all tariffs. Duties imposed under other legal authorities remain in place, keeping overall average rates above 6%, still about triple early-2025 levels.

Sector-specific tariffs on goods such as steel, autos, and pharmaceuticals are unaffected. That means many existing trade restrictions will continue despite the legal setback.

Why the Impact May Be Limited

Trade flows already adapted to tariffs over the past year:

• Importers shifted supply chains away from heavily taxed countries.
• Some firms absorbed costs instead of passing them to consumers.
• US tariff revenue surged to about $240 billion last year.

Because of those adjustments, inflation effects have been relatively muted and the actual average tariff paid has been closer to 11%.

Global Trade Already Changed

Even before the ruling, Trump’s policies had reshaped international commerce. Countries redirected trade toward new partners, while exporters like Vietnam and Thailand gained market share as US buyers reduced reliance on China. At the same time, China offset losses by boosting exports of technology hardware to the US during the AI boom and expanding trade ties with emerging markets.

The result is a world trading system that looks very different from just a year ago. In fact, global trade growth outpaced overall economic growth last year.

What Comes Next

The ruling removes one of Trump’s strongest policy tools but does not end his tariff strategy. Legal experts say alternative mechanisms exist that could allow similar tariffs, though they would take longer to implement.

That creates a window of opportunity and risk:

• Importers may rush shipments before new rules appear.
• Businesses face uncertainty over future tariff levels.
• Markets must price in shifting policy again.

The court limited Trump’s ability to impose tariffs, but it did not undo the changes already set in motion. Global trade has adapted to a more unpredictable US policy stance, and that uncertainty may now be the system’s new normal.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: US trade deficit hits fresh high despite Trump’s tariffs

The post Trump tariffs ripped up global trade order. What now? first appeared on Finblog.

The paused measures reportedly include a ban on China Telecom’s US operations, restrictions on the sale of Chinese equipment used in US data centers, and proposed bans on routers made by TP-Link. Other measures on hold would have targeted the US operations of China Unicom and China Mobile, as well as the sale of certain Chinese electric trucks and buses in the US.

The decision follows a trade truce reached in October between Washington and Beijing, aimed at easing tensions after years of tariff battles and technology disputes. As part of that understanding, China agreed to delay export restrictions on rare-earth minerals, which are critical for global tech manufacturing.

The US Commerce Department defended its approach, stating it continues to address national security risks linked to foreign technology. However, critics argue that pausing the restrictions could leave US data centers and telecom infrastructure vulnerable, especially as AI-related infrastructure expands rapidly.

Former Trump administration official Matt Pottinger warned that easing controls could give Beijing new leverage over US digital infrastructure. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer accused the administration of compromising national security in pursuit of improved relations with China.

Supporters of the pause say the move reflects an effort to stabilize ties before high-level talks. Trade experts note that China has made clear it views further export controls as hostile actions that could undermine negotiations.

Sources indicated that the shelved measures could be revived if relations deteriorate after the upcoming summit. For now, the administration appears focused on maintaining diplomatic space ahead of what could be a pivotal meeting between the world’s two largest economies.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: China Moves to Stop Auto Price War After Sales Slump

The post Trump Pauses China Tech Bans Ahead of Xi Summit first appeared on Finblog.

Under the deal, the US will reduce its general tariff rate on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%, aligning Taiwan with key Asian partners such as South Korea and Japan. In return, Taipei agreed to remove or reduce 99% of its tariff barriers on American products and commit to purchasing more than $85 billion worth of US energy, aircraft, and industrial equipment.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te described the agreement as a “pivotal” moment for the island’s economy, saying it would make Taiwanese goods more competitive in the US market. Thousands of products are expected to benefit from lower tariff rates.

The Office of the US Trade Representative said the deal will expand market access for American auto parts, machinery, chemicals, dairy, and pork, while also exempting a wide range of Taiwanese goods from US tariffs.

The agreement does not include new binding commitments related to Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, although both sides acknowledged previous investment announcements involving Taiwanese chipmakers in the United States.

The US became Taiwan’s largest export market in 2025, accounting for nearly one-third of total exports, as demand for high-tech and AI-related products surged.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: US Reaches Deal With Taiwan to Cut Tariffs

The post US and Taiwan sign ‘pivotal’ deal to cut tariffs first appeared on Finblog.

The deal triggered a sharp rally in Indian stocks and the rupee’s strongest one-day gain in seven years, easing pressure that had built up after months of tariff uncertainty. Foreign investors added about $580 million to Indian equities on the announcement day, temporarily interrupting a heavy selling trend.

Still, confidence remains fragile. Foreign investors have pulled roughly $23 billion from Indian stocks since the start of 2025, cutting allocations to a two-decade low.

Sentiment improves, fundamentals still lag

Investors say the trade agreement helps valuation and visibility, but does little to change near-term earnings expectations.

• Corporate profit growth has stayed in high single digits for six straight quarters, well below the 15%–25% growth seen earlier in the decade.
• Indian equities continue to underperform peers, with the benchmark index up 10% over 12 months, compared with 118% for South Korea and 42% for Taiwan.
• Fund managers point to elevated valuations, slower earnings growth, and a lack of globally scalable AI beneficiaries as key constraints.

“Tariffs feed into sentiment, but they don’t automatically create an earnings surge,” said one emerging markets investor.

AI gap weighs on stocks

India’s absence of clear AI leaders is becoming a bigger concern. Technology stocks fell more than 6% after new AI workplace tools from Anthropic raised fears of disruption across IT services.

This has left Indian equities lagging other emerging markets that are more directly exposed to AI-driven growth.

Rupee gets breathing room

The trade deal has eased balance-of-payments concerns and helped stabilize the rupee, which had been the worst-performing Asian currency over the past year after sliding from around 88 per dollar to nearly 92.

Analysts expect pressure on the currency to moderate, though heavy hedging demand and central bank reserve management could limit any sustained rally.

What investors are waiting for

Many global funds say they may move from underweight to neutral on India, but a shift to overweight positions will require:

• Clearer earnings acceleration
• Stronger policy signals from the government
• Evidence that India can capture part of the global AI investment cycle

Goldman Sachs now expects 16% earnings growth for Indian companies this year and forecasts a 12% dollar return over the next 12 months. That still trails its 20% return outlook for China, underscoring why India’s tariff relief is seen as a pause in selling, not yet a full buy signal.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: Trump Announces Initial Trade Deal With India, Cuts Tariffs to 18%

India to Cut Car Import Tariffs to 40% in EU Trade Deal

The post India Markets Get Tariff Relief, but Investors Are Not Ready to Buy first appeared on Finblog.