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		<title>US Strategic Oil Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/us-strategic-oil-reserve-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1983/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=us-strategic-oil-reserve-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1983</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 15 Jun 2026 12:14:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=22045</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has fallen to its lowest level since 1983, highlighting how months of emergency releases have reduced the country&#8217;s emergency oil stockpile. According to the US Department of Energy, the SPR declined to 340.3 million barrels, following a series of drawdowns aimed at easing supply shortages and stabilizing energy markets during the Iran conflict. The decline comes as markets begin to adjust to a preliminary US-Iran peace agreement, which is expected to eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil exports from the region. That optimism has helped push crude prices sharply lower in...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/us-strategic-oil-reserve-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1983/">US Strategic Oil Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The <strong>US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (<a href="https://finblog.com/?s=Oil" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">SPR</a>)</strong> has fallen to its <strong>lowest level since 1983</strong>, highlighting how months of emergency releases have reduced the country&#8217;s emergency oil stockpile.</p>



<p>According to the <strong>US Department of Energy</strong>, the SPR declined to <strong>340.3 million barrels</strong>, following a series of drawdowns aimed at easing supply shortages and stabilizing energy markets during the Iran conflict.</p>



<p>The <a href="https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/us-oil-reserves-hit-lowest-point-since-1983-amid-iran-deal-93CH-4743231" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">decline </a>comes as markets begin to adjust to a preliminary <strong>US-Iran peace agreement</strong>, which is expected to eventually reopen the <strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong> and restore oil exports from the region. That optimism has helped push crude prices sharply lower in recent days, although analysts caution that a full recovery in global oil flows could still take months.</p>



<p>The reserve has played a key role in offsetting supply disruptions throughout the conflict. However, its historically low level is now raising fresh questions about <strong>US energy security</strong> should another major supply shock occur.</p>



<p>Several key points stand out:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>SPR inventories have fallen to 340.3 million barrels</strong></li>



<li><strong>The reserve is now at its lowest level in more than four decades</strong></li>



<li><strong>Emergency releases helped stabilize oil markets during the Iran conflict</strong></li>



<li><strong>Future replenishment is expected once market conditions normalize</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>For investors, the focus is now shifting from emergency supply releases to how quickly global production and shipping can recover. If the US-Iran agreement holds and oil flows continue improving, pressure on the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could gradually ease.</p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/us-strategic-oil-reserve-falls-to-lowest-level-since-1983/">US Strategic Oil Reserve Falls to Lowest Level Since 1983</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>What Went Wrong and Right for Stocks Q1 2026?</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/what-went-wrong-and-right-for-stocks-q1-2026/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=what-went-wrong-and-right-for-stocks-q1-2026</link>
					<comments>https://finblog.com/what-went-wrong-and-right-for-stocks-q1-2026/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 22:50:07 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FED]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=21092</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>What started as a strong, AI-driven rally at the beginning of 2026 quickly turned into one of the most uncertain quarters in recent years, as war, inflation, and shifting expectations hit global markets at the same time. At the start of January, the mood was clearly optimistic. The S&#38;P 500 was near record highs, investors were confident that inflation was easing, and the dominant belief was that the Federal Reserve would soon begin cutting rates. AI remained the strongest theme, with expectations that Big Tech would continue leading the market higher. Three months later, that entire narrative has changed. By...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/what-went-wrong-and-right-for-stocks-q1-2026/">What Went Wrong and Right for Stocks Q1 2026?</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>What started as a strong, AI-driven rally at the beginning of 2026 quickly turned into one of the most uncertain quarters in recent years, as war, inflation, and shifting expectations hit global markets at the same time.</strong></p>



<p>At the start of January, the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-tumultuous-quarter-just-ended-here-are-the-highlights-lowlights-and-everything-else-202703745.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">mood </a>was clearly optimistic. The S&amp;P 500 was near record highs, investors were confident that inflation was easing, and the dominant belief was that the Federal Reserve would soon begin cutting rates. AI remained the strongest theme, with expectations that Big Tech would continue leading the market higher.</p>



<p>Three months later, that entire narrative has changed.</p>



<p>By the end of the first quarter, markets had moved sharply lower. The <strong>S&amp;P 500 fell 4.8%, the Dow dropped 4.2%, and the Nasdaq declined 7.1%</strong>, reflecting a broad shift in sentiment across sectors.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>From Rate Cut</strong>s<strong> to Rate Hike Fears</strong></h2>



<p>One of the biggest drivers of this shift has been the Federal Reserve.</p>



<p>At the beginning of the year, the Fed appeared comfortable holding rates steady, with inflation gradually cooling and the economy showing resilience. Markets were pricing in multiple rate cuts for 2026.</p>



<p>But that outlook didn’t last.</p>



<p>Inflation proved more persistent than expected, and then the Iran war added a new layer of pressure by pushing energy prices higher. Suddenly, instead of discussing when rates would fall, investors began asking whether they might rise again.</p>



<p>Now, the market is preparing for:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>A prolonged pause in rate cuts</li>



<li>Or even a potential <strong>rate hike later in 2026</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>This change has been especially damaging for growth stocks, which rely heavily on lower rates to support high valuations.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img fetchpriority="high" decoding="async" width="960" height="619" src="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-60.png" alt="" class="wp-image-21094" srcset="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-60.png 960w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-60-300x193.png 300w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-60-768x495.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The AI Trade: From Leader to Question Mark</h2>



<p>At the same time, the AI trade, which had been the strongest driver of the market over the past year, began to lose momentum.</p>



<p>This is not because AI demand disappeared, but because the narrative around it became more complicated. Investors started to question:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>How profitable AI investments really are</li>



<li>Whether massive spending on infrastructure will pay off</li>



<li>How long it will take for returns to materialize</li>
</ul>



<p>As a result, major tech stocks declined:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Microsoft fell more than 20%</li>



<li>Meta dropped around 12%</li>



<li>Amazon and Alphabet both declined close to 10%</li>



<li>Nvidia, despite remaining a key AI player, also pulled back</li>
</ul>



<p>The shift reflects a broader rebalancing. AI is still seen as a long-term growth driver, but it is no longer treated as a short-term market guarantee.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img decoding="async" width="960" height="640" src="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-59.png" alt="" class="wp-image-21093" srcset="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-59.png 960w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-59-300x200.png 300w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-59-768x512.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Turning Point: Iran War and Oil Shock</h2>



<p>The most important catalyst of the quarter was the escalation of the Iran conflict.</p>



<p>What was initially expected to be a short and contained situation quickly evolved into a prolonged disruption, particularly in global energy markets.</p>



<p>Iran’s strategy has focused less on direct confrontation and more on <strong>targeting oil flows and shipping routes</strong>, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. This has created a sustained shock to energy markets. The consequences have been immediate:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Oil prices surged sharply</li>



<li>Inflation expectations increased</li>



<li>Global growth concerns returned</li>
</ul>



<p>This has also introduced the risk of <strong>stagflation</strong>, a scenario where inflation remains high while economic growth slows, something markets have not had to seriously price in for years.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Sector Rotation: Energy Wins, Tech Struggles</h2>



<p>As conditions changed, market leadership shifted significantly.</p>



<p>Energy stocks became the clear winners of the quarter. Companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips saw strong gains, supported by higher oil prices and renewed focus on energy security.</p>



<p>At the same time, tech and software stocks underperformed.</p>



<p>The so-called <strong>“Magnificent 7,</strong>” which had dominated markets in previous quarters, lost momentum. While they remain central to the market, they are no longer acting as a safe haven for investors.</p>



<p>Interestingly, another unexpected beneficiary has been the electric vehicle sector. As gasoline prices rise, consumers are once again paying more attention to alternatives, which could support demand for EVs if high energy prices persist.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A More Complex Market Environment</h2>



<p>What makes this moment particularly challenging is that multiple forces are now interacting at once. Markets are no longer driven by a single theme like AI or rate cuts. Instead, they are balancing:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Geopolitical risk from the Iran war</li>



<li>Inflation driven by energy prices</li>



<li>Uncertainty around central bank policy</li>



<li>Questions about the sustainability of AI-driven growth</li>
</ul>



<p>This combination has created a market environment where sentiment can shift quickly, often based on headlines rather than fundamentals.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Investors Are Watching Now</h2>



<p>Looking ahead, several key questions will define the next phase of the market:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Will the Fed hold rates steady, cut, or hike?</li>



<li>Can oil prices stabilize, or will they continue rising?</li>



<li>Will the Iran conflict escalate or move toward resolution?</li>



<li>Can AI regain investor confidence as earnings come in?</li>
</ul>



<p>Each of these factors has the potential to significantly move markets on its own. Together, they create a highly uncertain outlook</p>



<p>The first quarter of 2026 marked a clear turning point.</p>



<p>Markets moved from a <strong>growth-driven rally built on AI and rate cut hopes</strong> to a more fragile environment shaped by <strong>war, energy shocks, and policy uncertainty</strong>.</p>



<p>AI is still a powerful long-term story, but it is no longer enough on its own to carry the market. For now, the direction of stocks will depend less on innovation and more on <strong>oil, geopolitics, and central banks</strong>.</p>



<p>And until those stabilize, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of the market.</p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p>Related: <a href="https://finblog.com/why-the-iran-war-poses-risks-to-ai/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title=""><strong>Why The Iran War Poses Risks To AI?</strong></a></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/what-went-wrong-and-right-for-stocks-q1-2026/">What Went Wrong and Right for Stocks Q1 2026?</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>A $1 billion Fund Manager Cuts 70% of Stocks, Waits for These Buying Opportunities</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/a-1-billion-fund-manager-cuts-70-of-stocks-waits-for-these-buying-opportunities/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=a-1-billion-fund-manager-cuts-70-of-stocks-waits-for-these-buying-opportunities</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Mar 2026 21:48:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tech]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stagflation]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=21061</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>A $1 billion fund manager has moved heavily into cash, warning that markets may not yet reflect the full risks of stagflation and ongoing global uncertainty. Eddie Ghabour, managing partner at Key Advisors Wealth Management, said his firm has sold roughly 70% of its stock holdings in recent months, taking a defensive stance as volatility rises. “We don’t think the market is properly assessing the risks,” he said, pointing to growing concerns about a potential stagflation environment. Defensive Mode: Cash Over Stocks The firm has significantly reduced exposure to equities, especially in sensitive sectors like: Technology, Software Instead, it is...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/a-1-billion-fund-manager-cuts-70-of-stocks-waits-for-these-buying-opportunities/">A $1 billion Fund Manager Cuts 70% of Stocks, Waits for These Buying Opportunities</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>A $1 billion fund manager has moved heavily into cash, warning that markets may not yet reflect the full risks of stagflation and ongoing global uncertainty.</strong></p>



<p>Eddie Ghabour, managing partner at Key Advisors Wealth Management, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wealth-manager-fund-assets-stocks-market-investing-war-iran-oil-2026-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">said</a> his firm has <strong>sold roughly 70% of its stock holdings</strong> in recent months, taking a defensive stance as volatility rises.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>“We don’t think the market is properly assessing the risks,” he said, pointing to growing concerns about a potential stagflation environment.</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Defensive Mode: Cash Over Stocks</h2>



<p>The firm has significantly reduced exposure to equities, especially in sensitive sectors like: <strong>Technology, Software</strong></p>



<p>Instead, it is holding:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Higher levels of cash</li>



<li>Limited exposure to gold and fixed income</li>
</ul>



<p>Ghabour believes current conditions are very different from past market dips, where quick recoveries followed shocks.</p>



<p><strong>“This is a much different scenario,”</strong> he said.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Needs to Happen Before Buying</h2>



<p>Despite the cautious stance, the firm is not bearish long term. It is simply waiting. Ghabour said two key signals must stabilize before re-entering the market:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>10-year Treasury yields</strong></li>



<li><strong>Oil prices</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>Right now, both are moving too aggressively, creating uncertainty for investors and businesses. Until energy prices fall and bond markets calm down, the firm is avoiding new long positions.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Dip Buying… But Not Yet</h2>



<p>While many investors are eager to “buy the dip,” Ghabour believes it is still too early. He expects markets could fall further, meaning better opportunities may come later.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>“If you’re fully invested, you’ve got nothing to buy the dip with,” he said, highlighting the importance of holding cash during uncertain periods.</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Big Tech Still the Target</h2>



<p>When the firm does return to the market, the focus will likely be on <strong>Big Tech</strong>.</p>



<p>Ghabour specifically mentioned: <strong>Nvidia, Apple, Applied Materials</strong></p>



<p>He believes these companies will benefit once conditions stabilize and sees the current volatility as setting up future opportunities. The strategy reflects a growing divide among investors. Some are buying the dip. Others, like Ghabour, are stepping back and waiting for clearer signals.</p>



<p>For now, his message is simple: <strong>The opportunity will come but the timing is not here yet.</strong></p>



<p>Related: <strong><a href="https://finblog.com/investors-turn-to-new-strategy-as-stocks-and-bonds-fall-together/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">Investors Turn to New Strategy as Stocks and Bonds Fall Together</a></strong></p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/a-1-billion-fund-manager-cuts-70-of-stocks-waits-for-these-buying-opportunities/">A $1 billion Fund Manager Cuts 70% of Stocks, Waits for These Buying Opportunities</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Almost everything is going wrong for markets right now</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/almost-everything-is-going-wrong-for-markets-right-now/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=almost-everything-is-going-wrong-for-markets-right-now</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 28 Mar 2026 17:34:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=21049</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>From stocks to bonds to crypto, nearly every major asset class is flashing warning signs as investors face one of the most difficult market setups in years. Markets entered 2026 with strong momentum, driven by AI optimism, easing trade tensions, and hopes for lower interest rates. But just weeks later, the picture has changed sharply. The S&#38;P 500 is down more than 7% this year, while the Nasdaq has fallen into correction territory, reflecting growing pressure across equities. Everything Is Moving the Wrong Way The current market environment is unusually broad in its weakness: At the same time, expectations for...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/almost-everything-is-going-wrong-for-markets-right-now/">Almost everything is going wrong for markets right now</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>From stocks to bonds to crypto, nearly every major asset class is flashing warning signs as investors face one of the most difficult market setups in years.</strong></p>



<p>Markets <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-everything-is-going-wrong-for-markets-right-now-100005327.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">entered </a>2026 with strong momentum, driven by AI optimism, easing trade tensions, and hopes for lower interest rates. But just weeks later, the picture has changed sharply. The <strong>S&amp;P 500 is down more than 7% this year</strong>, while the <strong>Nasdaq has fallen into correction territory</strong>, reflecting growing pressure across equities.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Everything Is Moving the Wrong Way</h2>



<p>The current market environment is unusually broad in its weakness:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The <strong>VIX</strong>, Wall Street’s fear gauge, has surged above 30, its highest level in a year</li>



<li><strong>Bond yields are rising</strong>, tightening financial conditions</li>



<li><strong>Gold has pulled back sharply</strong> from its highs</li>



<li><strong>Bitcoin is struggling near $65,000</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>At the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have faded, with markets now seeing a <strong>higher chance of rate hikes instead</strong>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">War and Oil Are Driving Uncertainty</h2>



<p>The ongoing Iran conflict continues to dominate sentiment. Investors are increasingly concerned that:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Higher oil prices will push inflation up again</li>



<li>Consumer spending could weaken</li>



<li>Global growth may slow</li>
</ul>



<p>Despite this, some analysts believe markets may still be underestimating the full economic impact of the conflict.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bullish Drivers Are Losing Strength</h2>



<p>For the past few years, markets had clear support:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Strong AI-driven investment</li>



<li>Solid earnings growth</li>



<li>Falling interest rates</li>
</ul>



<p>In 2026, those drivers are weakening. New concerns, including the rapid shift toward AI replacing traditional software and stress in parts of the credit market, are adding to the negative outlook.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Some See Opportunity in the Selloff</h2>



<p>Not everyone is turning bearish. Some strategists argue the current weakness may be temporary.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Truist Wealth suggests <strong>gradually putting money into the market</strong></li>



<li>Apollo’s chief economist says markets may be <strong>overreacting to short-term volatility</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>The more optimistic view is that:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Oil prices will eventually stabilize</li>



<li>Inflation pressures will ease</li>



<li>AI growth will continue supporting the economy</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Needs to Change</h2>



<p>For markets to recover, one key factor stands out: <strong>Oil prices must stabilize or fall.</strong> Until then, inflation risks remain elevated, central banks stay cautious, and investor confidence is likely to remain fragile.</p>



<p>Right now, markets are dealing with a rare combination of pressures:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Geopolitical tension</li>



<li>Rising inflation risks</li>



<li>Uncertain central bank policy</li>
</ul>



<p>While some see long-term opportunity, the near-term picture remains challenging. <strong>For now, investors are holding on as volatility continues to dominate the market.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Related: <a href="https://finblog.com/dow-enters-correction-as-war-fears-deepen-market-selloff/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">Dow Enters Correction as War Fears Deepen Market Selloff</a></strong></p>



<p></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/almost-everything-is-going-wrong-for-markets-right-now/">Almost everything is going wrong for markets right now</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Trading Day: Oil Up, Everything Else Down</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/trading-day-oil-up-everything-else-down/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=trading-day-oil-up-everything-else-down</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 22:13:58 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trading]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=21016</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Stocks, bonds, and gold dropped sharply while oil surged, as fading hopes for Middle East de-escalation reignited inflation fears and triggered a broad global selloff. Global markets moved into a clear risk-off mode on Thursday, with investors reacting to worsening geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and growing doubts about economic stability heading into the end of the quarter. A Full Market Selloff: Everything Falls Except Oil The selloff was widespread and aggressive across asset classes: Meanwhile, oil surged 5%, reinforcing fears that inflation could rise again just as central banks were hoping for stability. Sector-wise, the pain was concentrated in...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/trading-day-oil-up-everything-else-down/">Trading Day: Oil Up, Everything Else Down</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/authors/jamie-mcgeever/"></a><strong>Stocks, bonds, and gold dropped sharply while oil surged, as fading hopes for Middle East de-escalation reignited inflation fears and triggered a broad global selloff.</strong></p>



<p>Global markets moved into a clear <strong>risk-off mode</strong> on Thursday, with investors reacting to worsening geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices, and growing doubts about economic stability heading into the end of the quarter.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Full Market Selloff: Everything Falls Except Oil</h2>



<p>The selloff was widespread and aggressive across asset classes:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Nasdaq fell 2.4%</strong>, entering correction territory</li>



<li><strong>S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.7%</strong>, Dow down around 1%</li>



<li><strong>European markets declined over 1%</strong>, Asia sharply lower with <strong>KOSPI -3.5%</strong></li>



<li><strong>Bitcoin slid 4%</strong>, falling back below $70,000</li>



<li><strong>Gold dropped 3%</strong>, silver plunged 5%</li>
</ul>



<p>Meanwhile, <strong>oil surged 5%</strong>, reinforcing fears that inflation could rise again just as central banks were hoping for stability. Sector-wise, the pain was concentrated in growth:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Communication services: <strong>-3.5%</strong></li>



<li>Tech: <strong>-2.7%</strong></li>



<li>Industrials: <strong>-2.3%</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>In contrast, energy stocks gained:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Energy sector: <strong>+1.6%</strong></li>



<li>Individual names like Valero surged <strong>+8%</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>Major tech names were hit hard: <strong>Meta -8%</strong>, <strong>Nvidia -4%</strong></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Core Driver: War, Oil, and Inflation Fears</h2>



<p>Markets are being driven almost entirely by the escalating Iran conflict and its impact on energy. The latest developments suggest:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Peace talks remain unclear and inconsistent</li>



<li>Iran has dismissed US proposals as “one-sided”</li>



<li>Oil supply risks remain elevated</li>
</ul>



<p>This uncertainty is creating a dangerous feedback loop:</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>War risk pushes oil higher</li>



<li>Higher oil fuels inflation</li>



<li>Inflation forces central banks to stay restrictive</li>



<li>Stocks reprice lower</li>
</ol>



<p>Investors are struggling to interpret conflicting headlines, leading to sharp and often irrational market swings.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Market Sends a Warning Signal</h2>



<p>The bond market is flashing serious stress signals. Recent US Treasury auctions have been weak:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Poor demand for <strong>2-year, 5-year, and 7-year bonds</strong></li>



<li>Rising yields to the highest levels since mid-2025</li>



<li>“Bear flattening” of the yield curve continues</li>
</ul>



<p>This suggests:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Investors are demanding higher returns to hold US debt</li>



<li>Inflation expectations are rising</li>



<li>Confidence in stability is weakening</li>
</ul>



<p>Falling foreign central bank holdings of US Treasuries are adding to the pressure.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Technical Breakdown Adds to Panic</h2>



<p>Beyond fundamentals, markets are now breaking key technical levels. All three major US indices have <strong>fallen below their 200-day moving averages</strong>, a critical long-term support level. This matters because:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Many institutional investors use this level as a signal</li>



<li>Breaking it can trigger automated selling</li>



<li>It reinforces bearish sentiment</li>
</ul>



<p>As one famous market saying goes:</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>“Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.”</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<p>This shift suggests the market is no longer just reacting to news, but entering a more structural downturn phase.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Despite Chaos, Some See Upside</h2>



<p>Interestingly, not everyone is bearish. Strategists at Barclays have <strong>raised their S&amp;P 500 outlook</strong>, arguing that:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Markets may already be pricing in worst-case scenarios</li>



<li>Economic resilience could still support equities</li>



<li>Panic-driven selloffs may create opportunities</li>
</ul>



<p>This highlights a growing divide on Wall Street:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Short-term: fear, volatility, uncertainty</li>



<li>Long-term: cautious optimism</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Comes Next</h2>



<p>Markets are now fully dependent on a few key drivers:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Middle East developments</strong></li>



<li><strong>Oil price movements</strong></li>



<li><strong>Central bank signals (Fed and ECB)</strong></li>



<li><strong>Consumer sentiment and inflation expectations</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>Upcoming data points include:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>US consumer sentiment and inflation expectations</li>



<li>UK retail sales</li>



<li>Speeches from Fed and ECB officials</li>
</ul>



<p>This was not a normal down day. It was a <strong>broad, multi-asset selloff driven by geopolitical risk and inflation fears</strong>, with technical breakdowns accelerating the move.</p>



<p>Yet beneath the panic, a key question remains: <strong>Is this the start of a deeper correction, or another buying opportunity in a volatile market cycle?</strong> Right now, markets are caught between those two narratives and reacting violently to every new headline.</p>



<p><strong>isclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Related:&nbsp;<a href="https://finblog.com/feds-best-move-now-do-nothing/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Fed’s Best Move Now? Do Nothing</a></strong></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/trading-day-oil-up-everything-else-down/">Trading Day: Oil Up, Everything Else Down</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Markets Face New Risk Beyond Inflation as Iran War Drags On</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/markets-face-new-risk-beyond-inflation-as-iran-war-drags-on/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=markets-face-new-risk-beyond-inflation-as-iran-war-drags-on</link>
					<comments>https://finblog.com/markets-face-new-risk-beyond-inflation-as-iran-war-drags-on/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 13:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=21019</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>Rising oil prices are not just fueling inflation fears, markets are increasingly worried about a deeper threat: a potential economic slowdown that could spiral into deflation. As the Iran conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets, investors are beginning to price in a more complex and dangerous scenario. While oil above $100 per barrel is pushing prices higher in the short term, parts of the market are signaling that the longer-term impact could be weaker growth and falling demand. From Inflation Shock to Growth Risk At first glance, the situation looks like a classic inflation story: But beneath the surface,...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/markets-face-new-risk-beyond-inflation-as-iran-war-drags-on/">Markets Face New Risk Beyond Inflation as Iran War Drags On</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Rising oil prices are not just fueling inflation fears, markets are increasingly worried about a deeper threat: a potential economic slowdown that could spiral into deflation.</strong></p>



<p>As the Iran conflict <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-big-risk-facing-markets-besides-inflation-as-the-iran-conflict-drags-on-e9aa7253?g=8fbab9ea-7e82-4ed8-bba9-955c2c118944&amp;mod=mw_rss_bulletins" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">continues</a> to disrupt global energy markets, investors are beginning to price in a more complex and dangerous scenario. While oil above $100 per barrel is pushing prices higher in the short term, parts of the market are signaling that <strong>the longer-term impact could be weaker growth and falling demand.</strong></p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">From Inflation Shock to Growth Risk</h2>



<p>At first glance, the situation looks like a classic inflation story:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Gasoline prices are nearing <strong>$4 per gallon</strong> in the US</li>



<li>Oil prices have surged sharply amid supply disruptions</li>



<li>Borrowing costs are rising as Treasury yields climb</li>
</ul>



<p>But beneath the surface, a different narrative is forming. A key market indicator, the <strong>five-year, five-year inflation swap rate</strong>, has actually been <strong>falling</strong> since the war began, even as oil prices surged.</p>



<p>That suggests markets are starting to expect:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Slower long-term economic growth</li>



<li>Reduced consumer demand</li>



<li>Possible disinflation or even deflation</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why Deflation Could Be the Bigger Threat</h2>



<p>Some traders believe the oil shock could hit consumers so hard that it triggers a downturn.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>“An oil shock could easily be near-term inflationary and long-term deflationary,” said inflation trader Gang Hu.</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<p>The logic is simple:</p>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Higher energy costs act like a tax on consumers</li>



<li>Households cut spending on other goods</li>



<li>Demand weakens across the economy</li>



<li>Prices eventually start falling</li>
</ol>



<p>If this cycle deepens, it could lead to <strong>deflation</strong>, a scenario historically associated with recessions and prolonged economic stagnation. The US last experienced deflation during the <strong>2008–2009 financial crisis</strong>, when collapsing demand pushed prices lower.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fed Faces a Difficult Balancing Act</h2>



<p>This creates a major challenge for the Federal Reserve.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>If inflation rises → the Fed needs to keep rates high</li>



<li>If growth collapses → the Fed needs to cut rates</li>
</ul>



<p>But if both happen at once, policy becomes far more complicated. Market expectations are already shifting:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Odds of a <strong>rate hike by December jumped to 46.5%</strong>, up sharply in one day</li>



<li>Treasury yields have surged to multi-month highs</li>
</ul>



<p>This reflects growing uncertainty about how the Fed will respond.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Not Everyone Is Convinced</h2>



<p>Despite rising concerns, not all analysts believe deflation is the base case. Some argue:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The economy is still relatively resilient</li>



<li>Consumers may absorb higher energy costs without collapsing demand</li>



<li>A quicker resolution to the conflict could stabilize markets</li>
</ul>



<p>Others expect <strong>continued volatility rather than a clear inflation or deflation trend</strong>.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>“It will be very hard for inflation to stay at 2%… we could easily see 3% or 1%,” Hu noted.</strong></p>
</blockquote>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What It Means for Markets</h2>



<p>This shifting narrative has major implications:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>Stocks:</strong> Increasing volatility as growth expectations weaken</li>



<li><strong>Bonds:</strong> Yields rising, especially in shorter maturities</li>



<li><strong>Commodities:</strong> Oil driving short-term inflation pressure</li>



<li><strong>Policy:</strong> Fed caught between conflicting signals</li>
</ul>



<p>In simple terms, markets are no longer just asking:</p>



<p><strong>“How high will inflation go?”</strong> They are now asking: <strong>“Will this end in a slowdown or even a recession?”</strong></p>



<p>The Iran conflict is creating a rare and dangerous setup:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Short-term inflation pressure</li>



<li>Long-term growth risks</li>



<li>Rising policy uncertainty</li>
</ul>



<p>If the war continues, the biggest risk may not be inflation alone. <strong>It’s the possibility that higher prices eventually choke off growth, turning today’s inflation shock into tomorrow’s economic slowdown.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Related: <a href="https://finblog.com/trading-day-oil-up-everything-else-down/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">Trading Day: Oil Up, Everything Else Down</a></strong></p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/markets-face-new-risk-beyond-inflation-as-iran-war-drags-on/">Markets Face New Risk Beyond Inflation as Iran War Drags On</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Why the Fed’s Next Move Might Be a Rate Hike</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/why-the-feds-next-move-might-be-a-rate-hike/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=why-the-feds-next-move-might-be-a-rate-hike</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Mar 2026 09:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FED]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rate cut]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=20934</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The FED still talks about cutting rates, but rising inflation risks and the oil shock are quietly shifting the conversation, and a rate hike is now a real possibility. Officially, the Federal Reserve remains in easing mode. Policymakers continue to signal that rates could come down later this year, as long as inflation keeps falling. But as The Wall Street Journal points out, the mood in markets and among economists has clearly changed. Investors are no longer confident that cuts are coming. Instead, they are starting to ask a different question: what if the Fed has to raise rates again?...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/why-the-feds-next-move-might-be-a-rate-hike/">Why the Fed’s Next Move Might Be a Rate Hike</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>The FED still talks about cutting rates, but rising inflation risks and the oil shock are quietly shifting the conversation, and a rate hike is now a real possibility.</strong></p>



<p>Officially, the <strong>Federal Reserve</strong> remains in easing mode. <strong>Policymakers </strong>continue to signal that rates could come down later this year, as long as inflation keeps falling. But as The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-the-feds-next-rate-move-could-be-a-hike-81e22988?gaa_at=eafs&amp;gaa_n=AWEtsqd77Jgs7wCgiby4u_SZE41C8R6vhvD8bZ9NtzTWx94s46TuMhn0tZbd&amp;gaa_ts=69bf08ea&amp;gaa_sig=OaqOcAn2_vjKW4wplhfWCg6RIz577-Sq6tmAogAZ1lmvRNxfxLSIvzP1RL8yolQHnWQlWd2b6UjDcxN9vv-0lA%3D%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">points </a>out, the mood in markets and among economists has clearly changed.</p>



<p>Investors are no longer confident that cuts are coming. Instead, they are starting to ask a different question: what if the <strong>Fed </strong>has to raise rates again?</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Shift in One Sentence</h2>



<p>The story used to be simple: inflation is falling, so rates will go down.</p>



<p>Now it looks more like this:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Inflation is <strong>stuck above target</strong></li>



<li>Oil prices are <strong>rising again</strong></li>



<li>Policy is already <strong>less restrictive than before</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>That combination is what’s changing expectations.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="600" height="800" src="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-44.png" alt="" class="wp-image-20937" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-44.png 600w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-44-225x300.png 225w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Is Still the Core Problem</h2>



<p>At first glance, inflation doesn’t look alarming. But the deeper data tells a more stubborn story.</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Headline inflation is around <strong>2.4%</strong></li>



<li>The Fed’s preferred measure is closer to <strong>2.8%</strong></li>



<li>Core inflation is still above <strong>3%</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>More importantly, <strong>key underlying categories</strong> haven’t improved much in the past year. That’s what worries policymakers.</p>



<p>As noted in the The Wall Street Journal analysis, the Fed had been relying on the idea that inflation would gradually cool on its own. But that process has stalled, raising doubts about whether current policy is tight enough.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="600" height="1000" src="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-45.png" alt="" class="wp-image-20938" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-45.png 600w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-45-180x300.png 180w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Then Came the Oil Shock</h2>



<p>Just as inflation was proving sticky, the Iran war added a new layer of risk.</p>



<p>Higher oil prices matter because they:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Push up costs across the economy</li>



<li>Feed into transport, food, and services</li>



<li>Make it harder for inflation to fall</li>
</ul>



<p>Normally, the Fed might ignore a temporary energy spike. But this time, the economy is still holding up, which means inflation pressure could last longer than expected.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Policy Might Not Be Tight Enough</h2>



<p>Another important piece of the puzzle is where rates stand today.</p>



<p>The Fed has already cut rates significantly since 2024. Now, they are only slightly above what economists call the “neutral” level, meaning they are no longer strongly restraining the economy.</p>



<p>There is also a subtle but important dynamic at play:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>If inflation rises while rates stay the same → real rates fall</li>



<li>Lower real rates → easier financial conditions</li>
</ul>



<p>So even without cutting, policy may already be <strong>loosening in real terms</strong>. That’s one reason some economists think a hike could eventually be needed.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img decoding="async" width="600" height="800" src="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-46.png" alt="" class="wp-image-20940" style="width:810px;height:auto" srcset="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-46.png 600w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-46-225x300.png 225w" sizes="(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Are Starting to Reflect This</h2>



<p>You can see the shift clearly in expectations:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Probability of a rate cut has <strong>fallen sharply</strong></li>



<li>Probability of a rate hike has <strong>risen significantly</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>This doesn’t mean a hike is coming soon. But it shows that investors are no longer fully convinced by the Fed’s easing narrative.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Why the Fed Is Still Waiting</h2>



<p>Despite all this, a rate hike is not the main scenario right now.</p>



<p>There are still reasons for caution: </p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Inflation could resume falling as temporary factors fade</li>



<li>The labor market is stable, not overheating</li>



<li>A prolonged war could eventually slow the economy</li>
</ul>



<p>In other words, the Fed is not ready to react aggressively yet.</p>



<p>The Fed is caught in a difficult position. It wants to cut rates, but: <strong>Inflation </strong>isn’t falling fast enough, <strong>Oil prices </strong>are rising, <strong>Financial conditions</strong> are already easing</p>



<p>As the The Wall Street Journal highlights, the conversation is no longer just about when rate cuts will happen.</p>



<p><strong>For the first time in months, the risk is that the next move might not be a cut at all.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p>Related: <strong><a href="https://finblog.com/feds-best-move-now-do-nothing/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">Fed’s Best Move Now? Do Nothing</a></strong></p>



<p></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/why-the-feds-next-move-might-be-a-rate-hike/">Why the Fed’s Next Move Might Be a Rate Hike</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>Markets on Edge as Iran War Drives Oil Surge and Stock Selloff</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/markets-on-edge-as-iran-war-drives-oil-surge-and-stock-selloff/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=markets-on-edge-as-iran-war-drives-oil-surge-and-stock-selloff</link>
					<comments>https://finblog.com/markets-on-edge-as-iran-war-drives-oil-surge-and-stock-selloff/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Mar 2026 22:02:33 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Middle East Conflict]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=20946</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>A deepening Middle East conflict is shaking global markets, pushing oil higher, stocks lower, and forcing investors to rethink the entire rate outlook. Wall Street heads into the new week under pressure as the ongoing US–Israel conflict with Iran enters its third week, sending shockwaves through energy markets and dragging equities into a sustained decline. What initially looked like a geopolitical flare-up is now evolving into a macroeconomic threat, with rising oil prices feeding inflation fears and complicating central bank policy. The S&#38;P 500 has now fallen for four consecutive weeks, hitting a six-month low and slipping below its key...</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/markets-on-edge-as-iran-war-drives-oil-surge-and-stock-selloff/">Markets on Edge as Iran War Drives Oil Surge and Stock Selloff</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>A deepening Middle East conflict is shaking global markets, pushing oil higher, stocks lower, and forcing investors to rethink the entire rate outlook.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Wall Street </strong><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-persistent-iran-war-energy-price-surge-set-loom-over-stocks-2026-03-20/" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">heads </a>into the new week under pressure as the ongoing<strong> US–Israel conflict </strong>with Iran enters its third week, sending shockwaves through energy markets and dragging equities into a sustained decline. What initially looked like a geopolitical flare-up is now evolving into a macroeconomic threat, with rising oil prices feeding inflation fears and complicating central bank policy.</p>



<p>The <strong>S&amp;P 500 has now fallen for four consecutive weeks</strong>, hitting a six-month low and slipping below its key 200-day moving average, a level closely watched by institutional investors. Meanwhile, the <strong>Nasdaq </strong>remains nearly 10% below its recent peak, reflecting growing stress across growth stocks.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Oil Is Now the Market’s Main Signal</h2>



<p>At the center of everything is oil.</p>



<p><strong>Crude prices </strong>have surged more than <strong>40% since late February</strong>, with US crude near $98 and Brent above $112. The spike comes as Iran targets regional energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions intensify in the <strong>Strait of Hormuz</strong>, a critical artery for global energy supply.</p>



<p>This has created a clear pattern in markets:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Stocks and oil are moving in opposite directions</li>



<li>The correlation between S&amp;P 500 and oil has dropped to <strong>-0.89</strong></li>



<li>Energy stocks are rising, but they make up less than 4% of the index</li>
</ul>



<p>For traders, oil is no longer just a commodity, it is the <strong>real-time indicator of war risk</strong>.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Fears Are Rewriting the Fed Outlook</h2>



<p>The surge in energy prices is feeding directly into inflation expectations, forcing a major shift in how markets see the Federal Reserve.</p>



<p>Just weeks ago, investors expected rate cuts in 2026. Now:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Rate cuts are being <strong>priced out completely</strong></li>



<li>Markets are even starting to <strong>consider rate hikes in 2026</strong></li>



<li>Treasury yields are climbing sharply, with the 10-year hitting <strong>4.38%</strong></li>
</ul>



<p><strong>Jerome Powell</strong> acknowledged the uncertainty, signaling that the Fed cannot clearly assess how the conflict will impact inflation and growth.</p>



<p>This creates a dangerous combination:<br>higher oil → higher inflation → higher rates → weaker stocks</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stocks Are Falling, But Not Panicking Yet</h2>



<p>Despite the selloff, one surprising detail stands out: the decline has been relatively controlled.</p>



<p>Unlike previous sharp drops, this pullback has been:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Gradual rather than chaotic</li>



<li>Supported by still-strong corporate fundamentals</li>



<li>Driven more by macro fear than company-specific weakness</li>
</ul>



<p>The S&amp;P 500 is now about <strong>6.8% below its January peak</strong>, but analysts note that markets are not yet in full panic mode.</p>



<p>Still, technical signals are flashing warning signs:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Break below the <strong>200-day moving average</strong></li>



<li>Drop below key support levels from November</li>



<li>Weak momentum across major indices</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bond Yields Are the Next Pressure Point</h2>



<p>Rising Treasury yields are becoming the second major threat after oil.</p>



<p>If yields continue climbing:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Borrowing costs increase</li>



<li>Economic growth slows</li>



<li>Stocks become less attractive compared to bonds</li>
</ul>



<p>Key levels to watch:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>4.3%</strong> on the 10-year yield → already breached</li>



<li><strong>4.5%</strong> → could trigger stronger equity selling</li>
</ul>



<p>This is where the market battle shifts from geopolitics to financial conditions.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What to Watch This Week</h2>



<p>The upcoming week may look light on economic data, but the real driver remains the war.</p>



<p>Still, a few key catalysts could move markets:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>US manufacturing and services data</li>



<li>Consumer sentiment reports</li>



<li>Major energy conference in Houston</li>



<li>Any escalation or de-escalation in Iran</li>
</ul>



<p>According to UBS analysts, markets are now pricing in a <strong>longer, more damaging conflict</strong>, with higher oil prices lasting longer than expected.</p>



<p>Markets are entering a fragile phase where geopolitics, inflation, and interest rates are all colliding.</p>



<p>If the conflict escalates further:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Oil could spike again</li>



<li>Inflation could stay elevated</li>



<li>Rate cuts could be delayed even longer</li>



<li>Stocks could face deeper downside</li>
</ul>



<p>But if tensions ease: <strong>Oil may stabilize, Yields could fall, and equities could recover quickly</strong></p>



<p>Right now, everything depends on one variable: <strong>How long the war lasts.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Related: <a href="https://finblog.com/why-the-feds-next-move-might-be-a-rate-hike/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">Why the Fed’s Next Move Might Be a Rate Hike</a></strong></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/markets-on-edge-as-iran-war-drives-oil-surge-and-stock-selloff/">Markets on Edge as Iran War Drives Oil Surge and Stock Selloff</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>US Won’t Intervene in Oil Markets, Focuses on Supply Boost</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/us-wont-intervene-in-oil-markets-focuses-on-supply-boost/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=us-wont-intervene-in-oil-markets-focuses-on-supply-boost</link>
					<comments>https://finblog.com/us-wont-intervene-in-oil-markets-focuses-on-supply-boost/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2026 10:39:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=20912</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The US will not intervene in oil futures markets despite rising volatility, choosing instead to increase global oil supply to stabilise prices. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the government will avoid financial market intervention during the Iran war. “We’re not intervening in the financial markets. We are supplying the physical markets,” he said. Plan: Flood the Market With Oil Instead of targeting futures trading, the US is preparing a massive supply response to offset disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Key measures include: Bessent described this as a “physical intervention” aimed at stabilizing real supply, not financial speculation....</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/us-wont-intervene-in-oil-markets-focuses-on-supply-boost/">US Won’t Intervene in Oil Markets, Focuses on Supply Boost</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>The US will not intervene in oil futures markets despite rising volatility, choosing instead to increase global oil supply to stabilise prices.</strong></p>



<p>US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/bessent-rules-out-government-intervention-oil-futures-market-during-iran-war" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">said </a>the government will avoid financial market intervention during the Iran war.</p>



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">
<p><strong>“We’re not intervening in the financial markets. We are supplying the physical markets,”</strong> he said.</p>
</blockquote>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Plan: Flood the Market With Oil</h2>



<p>Instead of targeting futures trading, the US is preparing a <strong>massive supply response</strong> to offset disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz.</p>



<p>Key measures include:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><strong>~130 million barrels of Russian oil</strong> already on the water could be “unsanctioned”</li>



<li><strong>~140 million barrels of Iranian oil</strong> in storage could also be released</li>



<li>Total potential supply boost: <strong>~260 million barrels</strong></li>
</ul>



<p>Bessent described this as a <strong>“physical intervention”</strong> aimed at stabilizing real supply, not financial speculation.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-42-1024x576.png" alt="" class="wp-image-20914" srcset="https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-42-1024x576.png 1024w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-42-300x169.png 300w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-42-768x432.png 768w, https://finblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/image-42.png 1440w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Strategic Reserves Also in Play</h2>



<p>The US and its partners have already approved a <strong>record 400 million-barrel release</strong> from strategic reserves. Bessent said additional releases are possible if needed:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Further unilateral US action could follow</li>



<li>Goal is to <strong>keep oil prices under control globally</strong></li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Covering a Major Supply Shock</h2>



<p>The administration estimates that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could remove: <strong>10 to 14 million barrels per day</strong> from global supply</p>



<p>The planned supply injections could help stabilize markets for <strong>several weeks</strong>, buying time while the conflict unfolds.</p>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Balancing War and Energy Stability</h2>



<p>Bessent said the US strategy is to:</p>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Maintain pressure on Iran</li>



<li>Avoid damaging critical oil infrastructure</li>



<li>Prevent a full-scale global energy shock</li>
</ul>



<p>Even though the US relies less on Middle Eastern oil, disruptions in the strait still impact <strong>global prices and market sentiment</strong>.</p>



<p>As oil markets react to war-driven uncertainty, the US is signalling a clear approach: <strong><strong>No intervention in financial markets, only real supply solutions.</strong></strong> The strategy aims to calm prices without distorting markets, but its success will depend on how long the conflict and shipping disruptions last.</p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Related:  <a href="https://finblog.com/sec-urged-to-restrict-chinese-companies-access-to-us-capital-markets/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">SEC urged to restrict Chinese companies’ access to US capital markets</a></strong></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/us-wont-intervene-in-oil-markets-focuses-on-supply-boost/">US Won’t Intervene in Oil Markets, Focuses on Supply Boost</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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		<title>US Plans to Ease Venezuela Sanctions to Boost Oil Supply</title>
		<link>https://finblog.com/us-plans-to-ease-venezuela-sanctions-to-boost-oil-supply/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=us-plans-to-ease-venezuela-sanctions-to-boost-oil-supply</link>
					<comments>https://finblog.com/us-plans-to-ease-venezuela-sanctions-to-boost-oil-supply/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Guntakin Mehnatli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Mar 2026 20:55:19 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trending News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[World]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Venezuela]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://finblog.com/?p=20868</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[<p>The Trump administration is preparing to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector to increase global supply as the Iran war drives prices higher. Officials are considering issuing new licenses allowing foreign companies to operate in Venezuela’s oil industry without violating US sanctions, aiming to boost crude production and ease market pressure. The move comes as the Middle East conflict disrupts global energy flows, with oil prices surging and supply tightening, forcing Washington to look for alternative sources. While the policy shift could help stabilize markets, analysts warn that Venezuela’s aging infrastructure means any meaningful increase in production may take time....</p>
<p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/us-plans-to-ease-venezuela-sanctions-to-boost-oil-supply/">US Plans to Ease Venezuela Sanctions to Boost Oil Supply</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>The Trump administration is preparing to ease sanctions on Venezuela’s oil sector to increase global supply as the Iran war drives prices higher.</strong></p>



<p><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-17/us-to-ease-venezuela-sanctions-to-unlock-more-oil-amid-iran-war?embedded-checkout=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener nofollow" title="">Officials </a>are considering issuing <strong>new licenses allowing foreign companies to operate in Venezuela’s oil industry without violating US sanctions</strong>, aiming to boost crude production and ease market pressure.</p>



<p>The move comes as the Middle East conflict disrupts global energy flows, with <strong>oil prices surging and supply tightening</strong>, forcing Washington to look for alternative sources.</p>



<p>While the policy shift could help stabilize markets, analysts warn that <strong>Venezuela’s aging infrastructure means any meaningful increase in production may take time.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.</strong></p>



<p><strong>Related: <a href="https://finblog.com/trump-says-us-doesnt-need-any-help-with-hormuz/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" title="">Trump Says US Doesn’t Need Any Help With Hormuz</a></strong></p>



<p></p><p>The post <a href="https://finblog.com/us-plans-to-ease-venezuela-sanctions-to-boost-oil-supply/">US Plans to Ease Venezuela Sanctions to Boost Oil Supply</a> first appeared on <a href="https://finblog.com">Finblog</a>.</p>]]></content:encoded>
					
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