According to Reuters, the imports reflect growing pressure on Russia’s domestic fuel market after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks damaged several oil refineries and disrupted gasoline production.

The shift is particularly notable because earlier this year it was India that relied on Russian oil to help offset supply disruptions caused by the Iran conflict. Now, the energy relationship has partially reversed, with Russia turning to India for refined fuel.

President Vladimir Putin acknowledged this week that attacks on refineries had contributed to fuel shortages but dismissed concerns about the scale of the problem. Despite those assurances, reports suggest queues at gas stations are growing in several parts of the country as drivers struggle to find fuel.

Russia remains one of the world’s largest crude oil exporters, but refining enough gasoline for domestic use has become increasingly difficult as attacks continue to hit key energy infrastructure.

For markets, the development is another reminder that energy security depends on more than oil production alone. Refining capacity has become a critical factor, and continued disruptions could reshape regional fuel trade while adding fresh uncertainty to global energy markets.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Russia Turns to India for Gasoline Imports as Fuel Shortages Deepen first appeared on Finblog.

On a monthly basis, prices jumped 0.9%, a sharp acceleration from February’s 0.3%. And here’s the key driver behind it all, gasoline prices surged 21.2% in just one month, accounting for almost three quarters of the entire increase.

So what changed?

The answer goes back to the US–Israel conflict with Iran, which began in late February. As tensions escalated, oil markets reacted immediately, pushing fuel prices higher and feeding directly into inflation.

Why this matters more than just gas

At first glance, this looks like an energy story. But it rarely stays that way.

When fuel prices rise, everything becomes more expensive to produce and transport. That means this isn’t just about what you pay at the pump, it slowly spreads into: transportation, airline tickets, everyday goods, services

For now, we’re only seeing the first wave.

Interestingly, some areas haven’t reacted yet. Grocery prices actually fell slightly by 0.2%, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose just 0.2%, showing that broader price pressure hasn’t fully kicked in.

But economists are already warning: this delay is temporary.

“It’s going to get worse”

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, put it very directly: Inflation doesn’t hit everything at once. Energy shocks move through the system slowly.

Even if the war ended tomorrow, the effects would still continue for months. And we’re already starting to see early signs:

• toy prices jumped 2.3%
• tools and hardware rose 1.4%
• vehicle servicing costs increased 1.4%

These might seem like small categories, but they show how price pressure is beginning to spread.

The real problem: your money buys less

Here’s where it gets more serious. For the past few years, wages were growing faster than inflation. That gave people some breathing room.

Now that trend just reversed. After adjusting for inflation, wage growth dropped sharply from 1.3% to just 0.3% in March. In simple terms, prices are rising faster than incomes again.

That’s when people start to really feel it.

This isn’t just about the war

The oil shock didn’t come into a clean economy. Inflation was already slightly elevated due to:

• tariffs pushing up goods prices
• strong consumer demand
• lingering supply pressures

Now, energy costs are being layered on top of that. As one economist put it, we’re not replacing old inflation pressures, we’re stacking new ones on top.

So what happens next?

There is some short-term relief. A temporary ceasefire has reduced fears of a deeper escalation, especially around key oil routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

But uncertainty is still high, and markets know it. The bigger picture is this: This inflation spike may have started with gas, but it won’t stay there.

Over the next few months, expect higher costs to slowly show up across more parts of everyday life. Not all at once, but steadily. And that’s what makes this kind of inflation harder to deal with.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: Trump says Iran has ‘no cards’ beyond Hormuz control

The post US Inflation Rises to 3.3% as Fuel Costs Increase first appeared on Finblog.

Average US gas prices are now about 64 cents higher than a month ago, as the conflict pushed crude oil prices sharply higher and triggered volatility in global energy markets.

President Donald Trump has said the war could end soon and that energy prices will fall once the conflict subsides. The White House has argued that the current surge is a temporary disruption.

But economists say the relationship between oil and gasoline prices is rarely that simple.

The “Rockets and Feathers” Problem

Energy economists often describe gasoline pricing with the phrase “rockets and feathers.”

When oil prices rise, gasoline prices usually shoot up quickly like a rocket. But when oil prices later fall, prices at the pump often drift down slowly like a feather.

This pattern is known in economics as “asymmetric pass-through.”

The effect has already appeared in recent days. Crude oil prices have fallen about 25% from their recent peak, but gasoline prices in the U.S. have continued to climb.

According to the American Automobile Association (AAA):

• Monday: $3.47 per gallon
• Tuesday: $3.53
• Wednesday: $3.57

That means drivers are still paying more even as oil prices ease.

A Familiar Political Challenge

This dynamic created major political pressure for previous administrations.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, both crude oil and gasoline prices surged. Even after oil prices began to fall, fuel prices stayed high for months, frustrating the Biden administration.

At the time, White House officials criticized energy companies and fuel retailers, arguing there was “no excuse for excessive price increases.”

Despite that pressure, prices took months to decline. Now the same economic pattern could create challenges for the Trump administration.

Relief May Take Time

Energy analysts say that even if oil prices stabilize, drivers may have to wait before seeing meaningful relief.

That delay occurs partly because refiners and retailers often buy crude oil weeks in advance, meaning the cost changes slowly filter through the system.

Uncertainty around the war could also slow the process. Reports that Iran may be laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels in the region have kept markets nervous about potential supply disruptions.

According to Rory Johnston, founder of the oil research firm Commodity Context, even if the conflict ended immediately it would take time for markets to stabilize.

“Even if tankers resumed full shipments through Hormuz today,” he said, “it would still take months to return to anything resembling normality.”

White House Says Price Relief Will Come

For now, the Trump administration insists the spike in gasoline prices will not last.

A White House spokesperson said the disruptions are short-term and argued that once hostilities end, energy prices could fall quickly and benefit American households.

However, if the past is any guide, drivers may not see lower prices at the pump as quickly as politicians hope.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: IEA to Release Record 400 Million Barrels From Oil Reserves

The post Gas prices that ‘go up like a rocket, down like a feather’ were a problem for Biden. Now they may haunt Trump first appeared on Finblog.

In an interview with Reuters, Trump dismissed worries about higher fuel costs, saying they are a temporary effect of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

“I don’t have any concern about it,” Trump said. “They’ll drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit.”

Oil prices have surged since the conflict escalated, pushing US gasoline prices up by about 27 cents in a week to an average of $3.25 per gallon, according to AAA.

The jump in energy prices comes as fighting threatens supply routes in the region, especially the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping lanes.

Despite the price increase, Trump said the administration is not planning to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the largest emergency stockpile of crude in the world.

The White House believes the energy shock will likely be temporary. Officials expect the military campaign against Iran to last four to five weeks, although some analysts question whether the conflict could drag on longer.

Meanwhile, administration officials have been in contact with major oil companies to discuss ways to stabilize energy markets. Options being discussed include insurance support for oil tankers, naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, and potential fuel tax relief.

Political analysts warn that sustained increases in gasoline prices could become a challenge for Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections, especially as many voters are already concerned about the cost of living.

For now, however, the White House is betting that energy prices will stabilize before they become a major political issue.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Trump on rising gas prices during Iran operation: ‘If they rise, they rise’ first appeared on Finblog.

A Summit of High Stakes

The agreements were signed on September 2, following talks between President Xi Jinping and President Vladimir Putin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin. Both leaders described ties as being at their “highest level in history,” stressing that the relationship had withstood global turbulence and now serves as a model for major-power diplomacy.

Putin praised China’s “warm welcome” and said the SCO is helping revive “genuine multilateralism.” Xi, in turn, stressed that Moscow and Beijing’s cooperation is a counterweight to “hegemonism and power politics,” a clear jab at Washington.

The Gas Mega-Project

Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller announced that a legally binding memorandum had been signed for Power of Siberia 2 — a massive pipeline that will cross Mongolia and deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually to China for 30 years. Miller called it the “largest and most capital-intensive project in the world’s gas industry.”

Russia also agreed to boost existing flows through current pipelines from 48 bcm to 56 bcm per year, roughly half of what Moscow exported to Europe before the war in Ukraine. The expansion reflects Russia’s pivot away from European markets, where demand is shrinking under sanctions and plans for an outright ban on Russian gas by 2027.

Still, key questions remain. Beijing has yet to formally confirm Miller’s announcement, and details on pricing, construction timelines, and whether China can flexibly scale purchases have not been disclosed.

Beyond Energy

The 22 agreements covered a wide range of sectors. Notable deals included:

• A cooperation roadmap between Gazprom and China National Petroleum Corporation.
• A memorandum between Rosatom and China’s Atomic Energy Agency on nuclear energy.
• Collaboration on Russia’s “Dust Monitoring of the Moon” instrument for China’s Chang’e-7 spacecraft.
• Protocols for expanded agricultural trade, including reindeer and deer antler exports.

Strategic Signals

For Putin, securing movement on Power of Siberia 2 is a major diplomatic win. It underscores Russia’s ability to find alternative buyers as Western markets close and tariffs intensify. For Xi, it reinforces China’s role as Russia’s indispensable partner, even as Beijing carefully manages its energy dependence.

The timing is also significant. US President Donald Trump has tightened tariff pressure on countries trading with Russia, including a 50% levy on India over its oil imports, and is urging European allies to escalate restrictions. Against that backdrop, the Xi-Putin handshake and pipeline announcement serve as a direct message of defiance: the Eurasian bloc is pressing ahead regardless of Washington’s sanctions.

Bottom Line

The SCO summit delivered more than symbolism. By advancing Power of Siberia 2 and expanding existing gas flows, Beijing and Moscow are locking in decades of deeper energy integration. Yet uncertainty lingers over pricing and timelines, leaving analysts cautious. What is clear, however, is that China and Russia are accelerating a partnership that both leaders see as central to their economic and geopolitical futures — and they are doing it under the banner of confronting U.S. unilateralism.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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The post China and Russia made ‘biggest project in the gas industry’ first appeared on Finblog.

• Energy has the highest share of ‘Buy’ ratings among S&P 500 sectors
• Analysts see 16% upside, backed by low valuations and Trump’s pro-oil stance
• But falling crude prices and weak cash flow cast doubt on a near-term rebound

Wall Street is quietly warming up to the US energy sector again.

Despite being one of just three S&P 500 segments in the red this year, oil and gas stocks are getting the most buy ratings across all 11 sectors, according to Bloomberg data. About 75% of S&P 500 energy companies are rated ‘Buy’, far above the market average of roughly 50%.

Valuations Look Cheap — But So Does Momentum

The appeal? Ultra-low valuations.

“The thesis that some people have is that multiples and valuations are very, very low right now,” said Leo Mariani, analyst at Roth Capital Partners.

Energy stocks are currently the cheapest sector in the S&P 500 by price-to-earnings ratio, and Wall Street sees an average 16% upside over the next 12 months — nearly double the expected gain for the overall market.

That optimism is also being fueled by Donald Trump’s aggressive support for fossil fuels, including regulatory rollbacks and renewed calls to “drill, baby, drill.” His recent spending bill removed tax credits for renewables while offering new benefits to traditional energy producers.

The Outlook for 2026: Strong Earnings Growth

Looking further ahead, Bloomberg Intelligence forecasts that energy will lead all sectors in earnings growth in 2026, aided by Trump’s fossil-fuel-first policies and rising inflation risks. Energy stocks also offer inflation hedge potential — a trait that helped them outperform in 2022 when inflation surged.

But that’s the long game. In the short term, it’s a mixed bag.

Short-Term Risks: Weak Prices and Institutional Skepticism

• WTI crude is down about 7% YTD, hurt by Trump’s trade war fallout and OPEC+ production adjustments.
• Q2 earnings for US energy producers are expected to fall 30% QoQ, and cash flow could drop 15%, according to BMO Capital’s Phillip Jungwirth.
• Momentum is absent: energy has underperformed in 4 of the last 5 quarters.

Even bullish analysts remain cautious.

“Is there a catalyst to dramatically change that and reverse that over the next 12 months? I’m not sure,” said Mariani, noting weak institutional sentiment. His price targets for many energy names are below the Street’s consensus.

Bottom Line: Bet or Trap?

Energy is shaping up as a classic value play — cheap, unloved, but potentially profitable in a Trump-led, inflation-prone world. But with crude prices soft and investor conviction shaky, it may take more than low P/Es and presidential cheerleading to turn the sector around.

Investors will be watching Q2 earnings, Trump’s next policy moves, and global demand signals for clues on whether this bullish thesis can actually deliver.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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The post Wall Street Is Stubbornly Bullish on Downtrodden Energy Stocks first appeared on Finblog.

Oil Abundance, Not Scarcity

• The world is oversupplied with oil, thanks to record production levels from the US, Canada, Brazil, and non-OPEC countries.
• The US is now the largest oil producer, surpassing Saudi Arabia in 2018. Domestic output has remained strong even amid price fluctuations.
• Iran’s missile attack didn’t disrupt actual oil flows. The Strait of Hormuz — the critical route for 20% of global oil — remains open.

“If Iran were serious about retaliation, it would sink an oil tanker,” said Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution. “It isn’t doing that — it’s bending the knee.”

Markets Aren’t Panicking Like Before

• Traders have learned not to overreact. Past conflicts — including Hamas-Israel clashes and the Russia-Ukraine war — caused only temporary spikes.
• Energy strategist Rebecca Babin calls it the “boy who cried wolf” effect. Spikes fade quickly when real supply disruptions don’t follow.

Demand Is Slowing — and Changing

• Gasoline prices have fallen for three years straight. This week’s drop in crude will likely pull pump prices down starting this weekend.
• The rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and cleaner technologies is softening demand. 1 in 5 cars sold globally last year was electric.
• Meanwhile, fossil fuel engines are getting more efficient, and airlines have slashed travel projections amid economic unease.

“Oil’s share of global energy demand dropped below 30% in 2024 — a historic first,” reported the International Energy Agency.

Alternative Energy Is Catching Up

• 80% of electricity growth last year came from renewables like wind and solar, according to the IEA.
• Tech giants (Meta, Microsoft, Google, Amazon) are now investing in nuclear energy to power data centers and AI infrastructure.
• Demand for natural gas grew 2.7% last year, far outpacing crude oil’s 0.8% rise.

What Could Change the Equation?

• Analysts say if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil could shoot up to $110/barrel.
• But few believe that will happen — Iran relies on that same route to export its oil, mostly to China, which buys 90% of Iranian crude.
• Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve and OPEC+ spare capacity act as buffers in case of serious disruption.

Trump’s Political Gamble

President Trump has demanded low oil prices while imposing tariffs that risk stoking inflation. Gas prices have fallen 12% year-over-year, but the White House is watching closely.

“EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN, I’M WATCHING,” Trump posted Monday.

Yet, even Trump’s push to “drill, baby, drill” may fall flat. US producers aren’t ramping up despite the pressure — not due to politics, but because the market is telling them not to.

So, the oil market today is more resilient, more diversified, and more cautious than at any point in recent history. Unless the Strait of Hormuz is shut or a real supply crisis erupts, prices may stay subdued — even with missiles flying in the Middle East.

Sources:

• https://www.apnews.com/article/oil-supply-demand-middle-east-1d4c15bf394235396e755c74bef4b458
• https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/6/24/fragile-iran-israel-ceasefire-calms-oil-markets
• https://www.npr.org/2025/06/25/nx-s1-5444030/oil-prices-iran-israel

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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The post Why a Middle East War Wasn’t Sparking an Oil Crisis This Time first appeared on Finblog.

Chinese energy firms have reportedly canceled all long-term and spot contracts with U.S. LNG suppliers, signaling a pivot toward Russian, Qatari, and domestic alternatives.

The halt comes as Trump’s new round of tariffs — including a 10% baseline duty and 145% tariffs on Chinese goods — continue to trigger retaliation.

The suspension underscores growing energy decoupling between the world’s two largest economies and could raise long-term risks for U.S. LNG exporters relying on Asia’s massive demand.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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The post China has stopped all liquefied natural gas imports from US first appeared on Finblog.

Behind closed doors, EU officials told POLITICO they’re dusting off an LNG demand aggregation scheme — a model tried after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It aimed to coordinate purchases to bring down prices. While participation was weak last time, officials believe Trump’s pressure may force a renewed effort.

The concept: EU countries and companies pool their gas orders, allowing them to negotiate better rates with U.S. exporters — and show Washington they’re serious buyers.

But challenges remain:

• Gas deals are made by companies, not governments
• Past aggregation efforts failed to attract enough corporate interest
• A summer buying spree could drive up LNG prices, straining budgets
• Some EU countries already import U.S. gas at full capacity

Market, Energy, and Political Stakes

The EU’s LNG storage must reach 90% by November 1, putting pressure on governments to buy fast — and cheap. But tightening global demand, Trump’s trade tactics, and price spikes from synchronized buying could complicate the picture.

EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen acknowledged the geopolitical importance of the deal:

“In the future, we will be buying more gas from the U.S.”
…while also warning it must align with the bloc’s climate goals.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen issued a careful warning:

“We want to give negotiations a chance.”
But she also made clear that if tariffs return, Brussels will retaliate.

Finblog Takeaway:

This isn’t just about gas — it’s a high-stakes test of EU soft power, U.S. pressure, and global trade diplomacy.

If the bloc can deliver a unified gas-buying proposal that meets Trump’s demands without breaking the bank or climate goals, it could stave off a devastating trade war.

But if talks collapse or price pressure spikes, the EU may be forced to fight fire with tariffs — and energy markets will feel the burn.

Watch U.S. LNG exporters, EU utilities, and Trump’s tariff timeline closely. This window for diplomacy? It’s open — but it’s narrow.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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The post EU will use Trump tariff freeze to push new fossil fuel deal first appeared on Finblog.

Will it work?

Over the last 2 weeks alone, natural gas prices are down more than -15% from their highs. Furthermore, oil prices are down -6.5% and just hit their lowest level of 2025. In the final months of 2024, we saw a sharp run higher in both commodities which is now being undone.

This comes after President Trump has made lower energy prices a central part of his policy plan. He demanded OPEC lower oil prices and the world drop interest rates. President Trump has also insisted that the US produces more crude oil throughout his campaign.

We recently published a threat showing how oil prices and energy as a whole could reduce inflation. The energy component in CPI makes up ~8% of the index. Energy costs also flow into other components like Food which means lower energy prices would help lower inflation.

Following the US election in November, national gasoline prices fell to $3.08, near the lowest since 2021. This marked a ~60-cent decline in a matter of months as markets priced in upcoming policy changes. The prospect of geopolitical tensions declining also pressured prices.

President Trump’s plan is to get gasoline prices bac toward where they were in his first term. Prices averaged ~$2.57 per gallon in Trump’s first term comparted to ~$3.54 during Biden’s term. That’s a ~38% increase from Trump’s first term which put pressure on consumers.

In a study published by the Fed, they examined the impact of a $10 increase in oil prices. The increase raises Energy CPI by +2.3% over 2 quarters and then it remains relatively stable. Food CPI rises +0.3% and Core CPI rises +0.1% over the next 8 quarters.

Therefore, a $10 DECREASE in oil prices would LOWER inflation by 0.2%. While this alone would not solve the inflation crisis, it would certainly get things moving in the right direction. If oil prices could fall back to the $50 range, inflation could fall by ~50 basis points.

Lower energy prices are a great first step in obtaining lower inflation. However, lower energy prices alone are not enough to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. The Fed’s job is far from over.

Source: TKL

The post Energy prices are falling: What is Trump’s “secret” plan? first appeared on Finblog.