Market strategists are predicting where the S&P 500 will finish next year, with the current consensus pointing to an 11% gain in 2026. However, history suggests these forecasts are often unreliable.

Data compiled by Bespoke Investment Group show that since 2000, Wall Street’s consensus forecast has been positive every single year, even during periods when markets later posted sharp losses. Over that period, the S&P 500 declined in seven out of 25 years, including major drawdowns such as the 38.5% crash in 2008 and a 19.4% drop in 2022.

While the average forecasted return of about 9% looks close to the market’s long-term average, the problem lies in accuracy. On average, forecasts missed actual results by more than 14 percentage points per year, meaning errors were often larger than the predictions themselves.

Despite these misfires, banks and brokerages continue to publish confident outlooks. Analysts say bullish forecasts are partly driven by business incentives, as optimism encourages trading activity and investment flows.

Still, even critics acknowledge that market strategists are not careless. Their reports often include valuable insights into economic trends, earnings growth, interest rates, tariffs, and AI-related risks. The issue is that these insights do not translate into reliable numerical predictions.

The column’s central message is simple: no one can consistently predict where markets are headed, especially over a one-year horizon.

Rather than relying on forecasts, investors are encouraged to focus on long-term fundamentals, diversification, and risk management. For long-term investors, broad index funds combined with high-quality bonds remain a practical way to navigate uncertainty. Those closer to retirement or seeking stability may prefer a heavier allocation to bonds or lower equity exposure.

The takeaway is not to fear the market, but to be skeptical of confident predictions. History shows that hope, discipline, and diversification tend to outperform forecasts.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: 6 Charts That Show How Stock Markets Got Reshaped in 2025

Why Wall Street Still Believes in a Santa Rally

The post Want to Know Where the Market Is Going? Don’t Trust This, or Any, Forecast. first appeared on Finblog.

Fink’s view reflects BlackRock’s aggressive crypto strategy. Their flagship iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has already pulled in over 21,000 BTC in May alone, bringing its AUM to $62.65 billion — more than half of total U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets.

ETF Flows Add Fuel to the Fire

Bitcoin’s momentum isn’t just hype — it’s backed by billions in ETF demand. Here’s how the U.S. Bitcoin ETF market looks:

• 11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs
• $118.59B in total AUM
• $120.76B total market cap
• $2.66B in daily trading volume

BlackRock is dominating, but the broader ETF ecosystem is helping solidify BTC as a serious financial asset, not just a speculative play.

Bitcoin Technicals: Strong but Overheated

Since April 7’s low of $74,532.07, Bitcoin has rallied 35.38%, reaching $103,376.94. Momentum indicators show strength:

• RSI: 75.29 → overbought zone
• MACD: 3,803.03 (above signal line) → bullish
• OBV: -492.54K → some negative pressure
• All MAs cleared:
  • 50-SMA: $88,534.40
  • 100-SMA: $89,842.09
  • 200-SMA: $91,233.80

Monthly returns show a solid rebound in Q2:

• January: +9.54%
• February: -17.5%
• March: -2.19%
• April: +14.2%
• May (so far): +9.57%

Bitcoin’s price trajectory and Larry Fink’s forecast suggest one thing: the asset is maturing. With institutional backing, robust ETF flows, and strong technical support, BTC may no longer be just a crypto asset — it’s becoming a macro asset.

But with RSI in overbought territory, some short-term caution is warranted.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related: 

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Tariff Trouble in Hollywood: Studios brace for new policy as box office struggles

US-UK Trade Deal: A Big Win or Just Political Theater?

What Jerome Powell said after Fed leaves key interest rate unchanged

The post BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Predicts Bitcoin to Hit $500K in 5–10 Years first appeared on Finblog.

Now, attention is turning to software—the next big AI play.

That shift has put CrowdStrike (CRWD) in the spotlight. As an AI-native cybersecurity leader, its threat detection helps businesses stop breaches in real time. But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. A massive IT outage in July 2024 caused widespread disruption, forcing the company into damage control.

Despite the setback, CrowdStrike recently hit a new all-time high, briefly touching a $110 billion valuation—before its latest earnings sent shares tumbling this week.

1. CrowdStrike Q4 FY25

CrowdStrike Falcon is a cloud-native security platform that protects endpoints (laptops, servers), cloud workloads, identities, and data.

•  Lightweight agent: A single agent is installed on every device, requiring no constant updates or reboots, making it easy to deploy and manage at scale.
•  Threat intelligence: Continuously updated threat intelligence detects and blocks attacks before they happen, using machine learning to predict and prevent breaches in real time.
•  EDR (Endpoint detection and response): Detects and automatically responds to malware, ransomware, and phishing attempts, ensuring instant protection on all endpoints.
•  XDR (Extended detection and response): Expands beyond endpoints to analyze cloud workloads, network activity, and identity behavior, providing full visibility into security threats.

Unlike traditional security solutions, Falcon doesn’t rely on signature-based detection. Instead, it harnesses AI and automation to stay ahead of emerging threats.

Key metrics:

Let’s define a few terms:

• ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue): The annualized value of all recurring customer contracts, a core indicator of CrowdStrike’s growth. ARR grew +23% year-over-year to $4.24 billion in Q4, driven by strong customer adoption.

• Dollar-Based Net Retention (DBNR): Measures how much revenue existing customers generate over time, including upsells. It was 112% in Q4, below the ~120% expected for FY25 due to credits and discounts issued after the IT outage.
• Gross retention rate: Tracks how many customers stay with CrowdStrike (maximum = 100%). It held steady at 97% in Q4, showing customers are not abandoning CrowdStrike despite the IT debacle.
• Modules: Individual services within CrowdStrike Falcon. Multi-module adoption is crucial for ARR growth as customers expand their usage over time.

CrowdStrike’s strategy revolves around its lower Total Cost of Ownership (TCO)—not just in software costs but in time and expenses saved by using a unified platform.

New customers start with nearly five modules on average, and in Q4, 21% of customers used eight or more—a strong indicator that existing customers continue to invest deeper into the platform.

Income statement:

• Revenue grew +25% Y/Y to $1,059 million ($20 million beat).
•  Subscription grew +27% Y/Y to $1,008 million.
•  Professional services grew +2% Y/Y to $50 million.
• Gross margin was 74% (-1pp Y/Y).
• Operating loss margin was -8% (-12pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP operating margin was 21% (-4pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.03 ($0.17 beat).

Cash flow:

• Operating cash flow was $346 million (33% margin).
• Free cash flow was $240 million (23% margin).

Balance sheet:

• Cash and cash equivalent: $4.3 billion.
• Long-term debt: $0.7 billion.

Guidance (mid-range):

• Q1 FY26: Revenue +20% Y/Y to $1.10 million (slightly short of consensus). Non-GAAP EPS ~$0.65 ($0.31 miss).
• FY26: Revenue +21% Y/Y to $4.78 billion (slightly ahead of consensus). Non-GAAP EPS ~$3.39 ($1.04 miss).

So what to make of all this?

• Net new ARR remains a key metric for momentum. It was $224 million (+23% Y/Y), a step down from last year’s $282 million, but already a strong rebound after the outage’s impact on new deals and customer credits in Q3 FY25. Management reaffirmed a target of $10 billion in ARR by FY31, with ARR set to re-accelerate in the second half of FY26 and beyond.

• Customer Commitment Package unwinds. The company is phasing out its CCP—a program launched after last year’s outage—which temporarily impacted ARR and margins. Leadership remains bullish on second-half growth as these short-term discounts roll off.
• Impressive quarter, but weak guidance. CrowdStrike delivered large beats on the top and bottom line for Q4 FY25. But guidance was the sticking point—next quarter’s earnings forecast came in well below expectations, leading to a sell-off. The profitability miss in FY26 was primarily due to sales & marketing costs associated with the CCP and amortized over a year.
• Margins and cash flow remain strong. Adjusted operating income grew 27% year-over-year. The company reported a record free cash flow of $1.1 billion for the full year FY25, highlighting the strength of its business model.
• Getting worse before it gets better. Q1 FY26’s cash flow will include ~$73 million of outage-related costs, including sales compensation and flexible payment terms. Management expects to return to GAAP profitability by Q4 FY26 and expand the adjusted operating margin to 23% in FY27.

Bottom line: The business fundamentals remain strong, but the market didn’t like the near-term margin impact. CrowdStrike is investing in future growth, betting on AI-driven security demand—but near-term profitability remains impacted by outage-related costs.

2. Recent developments

 Leadership Recognition

• Gartner’s Magic Quadrant: In July 2024, CrowdStrike was named the leader in Endpoint Protection Platforms, outranking Microsoft and all competitors in execution and vision.

• FedRAMP Authorization: Falcon Next-Gen SIEM, Falcon for IT, Falcon Data Protection, and Falcon Exposure Management received FedRAMP certification, expanding its federal market reach.
• Gartner Peer Insights: 96% of customers recommend CrowdStrike for Managed Detection and Response as of September 2024.
• Forrester Wave: Crowdstrike was named a leader in Managed Detection And Response Services in Q1 2025.

Why it matters: Despite the July 2024 outage, CrowdStrike maintained its leadership position in cybersecurity, continuing to gain industry recognition and expand its product certifications.

 Still Acquisitive

CrowdStrike aggressively acquires companies to enhance its multi-module platform, a strategy mirroring Microsoft and Salesforce.

Key acquisitions shaping CrowdStrike’s future:

• Payload Security (2017): Automated malware analysis sandbox.
• Preempt Security (2020): Zero-trust and real-time access control ($96M).
• SecureCircle (2021): Cloud-based data security solution.
• Humio (2021): High-speed log management & observability ($400M).
• Reposify (2022): Threat detection for IoT devices.
• Bionic (2023): Cloud security management ($350M).
• Flow Security (2024): Data security posture management (DSPM) ($200M).
• Adaptive Shield (2024): SaaS security posture management (SSPM) for cloud apps ($300M).

Why it matters: CrowdStrike’s acquisition spree is a core part of its strategy, expanding its cloud and AI-powered cybersecurity offerings. This keeps it ahead of legacy competitors while strengthening module adoption.

3. Key quotes from the earnings call

CEO George Kurtz:

“Everyone loves a comeback story, and that’s exactly what we’ve started experiencing in Q4 as we’ve closed out the year. The results tell our story. One, we’ve never been closer to our customers and partners with market-leading customer satisfaction levels. Two, we’re playing best-in-class defense as well as offense with our Falcon Flex subscription model. And three, our innovation engine hasn’t missed a beat.”

CrowdStrike is in recovery mode. After last summer’s IT outage, the company is gaining momentum with strong customer engagement, growing adoption of its Falcon Flex model, and continued innovation.

On the CCP:

“With the summer now several quarters behind us, we’re ending our customer commitment package program. The CCP program was an excellent proactive measure, which not only built our relationship with impacted customers, but also resulted in significant platform adoption. This uptake gives me confidence in our second-half net new ARR reacceleration as products are deployed, one-time discounts drop off, and contracts are upsized and renewed.“

Short-term pain, long-term gain. Ending the CCP program means CrowdStrike will no longer offer discounts to customers impacted by the outage. This sets the stage for ARR reacceleration in the second half of FY26.

On AI integration:

“CrowdStrike is cybersecurity’s AI-native SOC. Our greatest asset is our role as the creator of cybersecurity’s richest data. We’ve curated this dataset with millions of Falcon Complete analyst annotations, making threat data contextualized and actionable. No one else has this. Our data is liquid gold for creating new agentic models for continuously improving protection.”

Data is the moat. CrowdStrike isn’t just selling software—it’s leveraging a massive dataset to make its AI-driven security platform smarter and harder to replicate.

On current tailwinds:

“We find ourselves placed at the epicenter of a rapidly evolving demand environment. A new administration, a new wave of technology, and a new threat landscape necessitate all businesses to evolve their cybersecurity programs. Consolidation, cost reduction, and automation are now the accepted enterprise and federal priorities..”

Cybersecurity spending isn’t slowing down. As AI threats grow, enterprises and governments are making cybersecurity a top priority, driving demand for CrowdStrike’s consolidated platform.

On Falcon Flex:

“Falcon Flex is a subscription model that enables customers to adopt the modules they want across their subscription term. This model deeply resonates with prospects and customers as well as our ecosystem partners.”

Flex customers adopt more than nine modules on average. Management provided updates on three fast-growing modules:

• Cloud Deployed: $600 million in ARR (> 45% growth Y/Y).
• Identity Security: $370 million in ARR (> 20% growth Y/Y).
• Logscale Next-Gen SIEM: $330 million in ARR (> 115% growth Y/Y).

Combined, these three modules grew nearly 50% Y/Y.

On customer wins:

“In Q4 alone, we’ve closed new records in every total deal value segment. Over 20 deals greater than $10 million, over 350 deals greater than $1 million, over 2,300 deals greater than $100,000 and that was all in Q4.”

This momentum is a critical component of management’s expectations for ARR re-acceleration.

On the go-to-market strategy:

“We recently announced being the first cybersecurity ISV to achieve more than $1 billion in sales on the AWS marketplace in one calendar year. We also had a noteworthy year with Google Marketplace, where in our first year of partnership, we did over $150 million in deal value out of the gate. We’ve aligned our partner ecosystem around hyperscaler marketplaces where we see larger deal sizes and faster deal cycle times.”

The fact that CrowdStrike’s sales through AWS Marketplace doubled in just over a year shows how cloud-based cybersecurity solutions are gaining momentum. This partnership strength gives CrowdStrike a powerful sales channel beyond traditional enterprise sales.

Customers are encouraged to go ‘all-in’ with Falcon to save costs, and hyperscalers play a critical role in facilitating this. Many come through SIs (System Integrators) like Accenture or Deloitte Consulting.

CFO Burt Podbere on the outlook:

“Our visibility is improving. We expect net new ARR reacceleration as well as operating margin and free cash flow margin expansion in the second half of FY26. We believe this momentum will set the stage for further acceleration in FY27 over FY26 and position us well to achieve our long-term targets […] as we scale the business to our goal of $10 billion of ending ARR by FY31.”

Given that this management team consistently beats its guidance, ARR could grow in the mid-20s CAGR in the next five years.

4. What to watch looking forward

CrowdStrike’s Play for the ‘Security Cloud’

CrowdStrike has consistently positioned itself as the defining “Security Cloud” aiming to mirror the success of category-defining platforms:

• Workday (HR Cloud)
• Salesforce (CRM Cloud)
• ServiceNow (Service Management Cloud)

The company was GAAP profitable before the 2024 outage and expects to regain profitability by January 2026. With revenue growth in the mid-20s, CrowdStrike is on track to scale into strong profitability—just like its cloud predecessors.

Public cloud software companies often operate unprofitably for years, but history shows that once the focus shifts to the bottom line, margins can expand rapidly (see Workday below). With highly predictable subscription revenue and efficient unit economics, CrowdStrike is building what could become a cash flow machine at scale.

 Valuation: How Much is Too Much?

CrowdStrike is currently trading at:

• ~18x forward EV-to-revenue, among the highest in software, trailing only Palantir (PLTR) and Cloudflare (NET).
• ~72x forward EV-to-EBITDA, reflecting strong growth expectations.

By traditional metrics, this looks expensive. But best-in-class businesses rarely trade cheap—investors often pay a premium for dominant, high-growth platforms.

Take Salesforce in 2013—unprofitable, growing in the high 20s, and generating ~$4 billion in revenue. Back then, it traded at 9x revenue and over 50x free cash flow. Many saw it as overvalued, yet those who invested tripled their money in five years.

History suggests that in high-quality software businesses, the duration of growth matters more than the valuation multiples at any given moment.

The Big Picture

Despite outage headwinds, CrowdStrike has proven its resilience—and the stock has followed. The company continues to drive multi-module adoption and expand its market presence.

For long-term investors, the next five years matter more than the next five months. And if history is any guide, the path forward looks up and to the right.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Source:

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The post CrowdStrike: Deep Dive into Company Fundamentals & Market Forecast first appeared on Finblog.

Institutions aren’t just hedging—they’re pulling money out at an alarming rate.

But behind the scenes, something is off. Institutions are pulling money out at an alarming rate.

Institutional Conviction: Down 53% from last year.
Big-Money Trades: Have disappeared.
Put Buying: Surging, even as markets rally.
CPI Event Trading: Collapsed.

The last time WARI levels were this low?
Before the March 2023 banking crisis.
Before the Credit Suisse collapse.
Before the August 2023 selloff.

This time, the data looks even worse.

 The Whale Alert Risk Indicator (WARI) – The Market’s Silent Alarm

What is WARI????

The Whale Alert Risk Indicator (WARI) is a tool that tracks how big-money traders (whales) are positioning in the options market.

It looks at key factors like:
Put/Call Ratio – Are whales more bearish (puts) or bullish (calls)?
Large Orders – Are they making high-confidence trades or sitting out?
Short & Long-Term Positioning – Are they betting on fast moves or trends?
CPI & Event Trading – Are they reacting to key macroeconomic events?

When WARI is high, it means whales are taking on risk and likely expecting upside.
When WARI is low, it means whales are hedging, avoiding risk, or expecting a selloff.

Most traders react to the news. Whales move before it.

If whales are bullish, WARI rises.
If whales are hedging, WARI falls.
If whales are running for the exits, WARI collapses.

And right now? It’s in freefall.

WARI Score – Institutions Are Tapping Out

What does it look like when institutional conviction disappears?

It looks like this. A 53% collapse in WARI from last year. In 2023, institutions were still making bets. Even in uncertainty, they were in the market. In 2024, they held steady. But in 2025?

Institutional conviction has collapsed by 53% compared to last year.
In 2023, institutions were still making bets despite uncertainty.
In 2024, they remained in the market.
In 2025, they are backing away fast.

 Put-to-Call Ratio – Whales Are Hedging Like It’s 2008 According to Alerts

A rising market should mean whales are buying calls. But they’re not.

Instead, put buying is up over 30% from last year—the highest it’s been since before the March 2020 crash. When put hedging rises while the market rallies, it’s a warning.

It means whales don’t trust this move. It means they see risk ahead. And the last time put positioning hit these levels, the market collapsed soon after. Whales don’t hedge this aggressively unless they expect volatility.

A rising market + surging put hedging = “We don’t trust this rally.”

Where Did The Big Bets Go? Institutions Have Left the Building

Whales don’t place 100-lot orders like retail traders. They make massive, high-conviction bets.

But this year? Those bets have disappeared.

Large orders are down 85% from last year. That’s not just a slowdown—that’s institutions pulling liquidity and refusing to take big swings. This is how markets break: when liquidity dries up, volatility explodes.

And right now? Institutions are refusing to play the game. That should make you nervous.

Whales don’t trade like retail—they make massive, high-conviction bets. But in 2025?

Large orders are down 85% from last year.
Liquidity is vanishing.
Volatility is about to spike.

Markets break when liquidity dries up. This is a red flag.

CPI Trading Has Collapsed – The Market’s Biggest Event Is a Ghost Town

CPI is the single most important economic event of the month. Whales usually pile in before and after the report, trading volatility and hedging ahead of market-moving surprises. ( Explanation of CPI Trading in detail: CPI trading refers to how institutional investors position themselves around the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report. Whales typically trade options and adjust portfolios ahead of CPI data to hedge against inflation risks or capitalize on market volatility. A decline in CPI trading activity suggests institutions see heightened uncertainty and are choosing to step back rather than take directional bets.)

But this year? They’re not showing up.

CPI trading volume is down 77% from last year. That means institutions aren’t hedging inflation risk—they’re avoiding the market entirely. The last time we saw whale positioning like this? Right before the March 2023 banking crisis.

If institutions are pulling back on CPI trading, it means they see risk—but no opportunity. That’s a major red flag.

Conclusion – What This Means for Investors

Institutions aren’t just cautious—they are running for the exits.
Put buying is skyrocketing despite a rising market—they don’t trust the rally.
Big-money trades are drying up—institutions are stepping aside.
CPI trading has collapsed—they don’t see opportunity, just risk.

Retail investors are still piling into stocks—but can they keep the market up alone?

This could be a warning sign. Markets may still go higher, but whales don’t hedge like this unless they expect volatility.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Source: YEET

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The post Market Looks Strong—But Whales Are Quietly Exiting, Should You? first appeared on Finblog.

This steadfast performance comes amid various potential setbacks, including unexpected inflation data, diminished prospects for interest rate cuts, and the introduction of new tariffs. Analysts attribute this resilience to investor confidence that President Trump will avoid policies that could significantly disrupt the market.

Historical patterns suggest a 77% probability of a market rally following such consolidation phases. The market’s ability to maintain strength in the face of unfavourable news indicates that buyers are currently in control, potentially setting the stage for an upward breakout.

However, some caution that the S&P 500 has been confined to a trading range over the past four weeks, which could signal underlying weaknesses. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF’s recent underperformance suggests that current economic strength may already be fully reflected in stock prices, posing risks if economic conditions falter.

In summary, while the stock market exhibits strong resilience and potential for new highs, investors should remain vigilant. Monitoring economic indicators and policy developments will be crucial in assessing whether the market will break out to new highs or encounter resistance in the near term.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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• Investor’s Business Daily – AI Stocks Fuel Market Strength

The post The stock market just won’t crack. Bulls say it’s time for a breakout to new highs first appeared on Finblog.

Potential Impact on Stocks

1️⃣ Steel & Aluminum Stocks Could Rally

• Winners: U.S. steel and aluminum producers such as Nucor (NUE), U.S. Steel (X), and Alcoa (AA) may benefit as domestic demand for American-made metals rises.
• Losers: Companies that rely on imported steel and aluminum, such as Boeing (BA), Caterpillar (CAT), and Ford (F), could face higher input costs, squeezing profit margins.

2️⃣ Automakers & Aerospace May Take a Hit

• Car manufacturers like General Motors (GM) and Tesla (TSLA) use large amounts of steel and aluminum. Higher costs may lead to price hikes, potentially hurting sales.
• Boeing (BA) and other aerospace manufacturers may struggle with cost increases, especially if retaliatory tariffs hit U.S. exports.

3️⃣ Industrial & Manufacturing Stocks Face Uncertainty

• Companies involved in construction, heavy equipment, and manufacturing (e.g., Caterpillar (CAT) and John Deere (DE)) may see cost pressures that could impact profit margins and stock prices.

4️⃣ Retail & Consumer Goods Stocks Could Feel the Pressure

• If tariffs cause inflationary pressures, consumer goods companies like Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), and Home Depot (HD) could see higher costs and reduced consumer spending.

5️⃣ Stock Market Volatility Likely to Increase

• Short-term uncertainty may trigger market volatility, especially if China, the EU, or other trading partners retaliate with countertariffs.
• Safe-haven assets such as gold (GLD) and U.S. Treasuries (TLT) could see inflows as investors hedge against market uncertainty.

Conclusion: Trade War Risks Loom

If these tariffs escalate into a broader trade conflict, expect increased volatility across equities, particularly in industrials, autos, and manufacturing. Investors should watch for retaliatory measures from key U.S. trading partners, as well as Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement later this week, which could further impact global supply chains and market sentiment.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Here’s a breakdown of each stock, along with what to expect in the future:

1. Tesla ($TSLA)

“Often evaluated through traditional auto industry metrics, Tesla’s FSD technology shifts its narrative from selling cars to providing a scalable autonomous ride-sharing network — positioning it as a leader in future mobility solutions.”

Outlook: Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities remain a game-changer. If the company successfully deploys a scalable robotaxi network, it could transition from a car manufacturer to a mobility service giant. The stock’s future hinges on software monetization and sustained leadership in EV technology.

2. Snowflake ($SNOW)

“Dismissed as a legacy data warehousing company, Snowflake’s advanced analytics platform and scalable, usage-based pricing model enable businesses to harness structured and unstructured data effectively — making it indispensable for AI-driven workloads.”

Outlook: Snowflake’s position in cloud computing and AI-driven analytics makes it a key player in enterprise data solutions. As businesses increasingly adopt AI, Snowflake’s ability to handle both structured and unstructured data at scale should support long-term revenue growth.

3. AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS)

“Frequently dismissed as overly ambitious with their massive CapEx expenses, AST SpaceMobile’s space-based cellular network technology has the potential to eliminate dead zones — transforming connectivity for rural and remote areas while establishing a first-mover advantage in global telecom.”

Outlook: ASTS has high-risk, high-reward potential. If it can execute its space-based cellular network, it could revolutionize global connectivity and establish an industry-first monopoly in satellite telecommunications. However, capital intensity and execution risks remain key concerns.

4. Palantir ($PLTR)

“Viewed as a black-box government consultant, Palantir’s Gotham and Foundry platforms provide data-driven insights for enterprises, with its growth in the commercial sector suggesting potential for broader adoption beyond government contracts.”

Outlook: Palantir’s expansion beyond government contracts into commercial AI solutions is critical for its next growth phase. If it successfully monetizes AI-driven analytics across industries, it could become a dominant force in enterprise intelligence software.

5. Rocket Lab ($RKLB)

“Dismissed as merely another space launching company, but its innovative rocket designs, cost-effective launch services, and strategic partnerships have turned it into the space logistics company of the future.”

Outlook: Rocket Lab’s affordable and frequent launch services make it a strong player in the commercial space race. If it continues securing defense and commercial satellite contracts, it could become a dominant space infrastructure provider alongside SpaceX.

6. TransMedics ($TMDX)

“Critics worry about competition from lower-cost alternatives like NRP, but TransMedics’ established network effect and logistical dominance create a high barrier to entry.”

Outlook: TransMedics’ organ transplant logistics network gives it a competitive edge. As the demand for organ preservation and transplantation grows, its market dominance in this niche medical sector should help sustain long-term growth.

7. Unity ($U)

“Criticized for alienating its developer base with controversial runtime fees, Unity remains a dominant force in real-time 3D content creation, with applications ranging from gaming to industrial design, and a strong foundation in AR/VR innovation.”

Outlook: Unity’s real-time 3D engine is still widely used across gaming, metaverse projects, and industrial simulations. If it can rebuild trust with developers while expanding into non-gaming applications, it could sustain long-term relevance in digital content creation.

8. Celsius ($CELH)

“Pepsi demand manipulation caused prior shelving issues for Celsius, leading to skepticism about its ability to maintain long-term growth. Those distribution challenges are largely behind Celsius, and its strong brand identity in the health-conscious energy drink market gives it staying power.”

Outlook: Celsius continues gaining traction in the functional beverage market. If it maintains its brand loyalty and expands global distribution, it could challenge Red Bull and Monster as a dominant player in the energy drink industry.

9. Uber ($UBER)

“Seen as vulnerable to Tesla’s potential Cyber Cab disruption, Uber’s diverse ecosystem of ride-sharing, delivery, and freight services positions it as a critical player in the mobility landscape, with a long runway before meaningful competition emerges.”

Outlook: Uber’s multi-service platform (ride-hailing, food delivery, freight) makes it more resilient than a standalone ride-share company. Even if autonomous vehicles disrupt the industry, Uber’s network effect and brand strength should keep it relevant.

10. First Solar ($FSLR)

“Critics worry about potential policy shifts under a Trump-led presidency, but First Solar’s leadership in U.S.-based solar manufacturing and its critical role in meeting the energy demands of AI and data centers make it indispensable for the clean energy transition.”

Outlook: First Solar benefits from government incentives and growing corporate demand for renewable energy solutions. Even if political policies shift, the global push for sustainability makes First Solar a key clean energy supplier for the long run.

11. Enovix ($ENVX)

“Seen as just another player in the battery sector, Enovix’s revolutionary 3D Silicon Lithium-ion battery technology offers substantial improvements in energy density and safety — signaling a potential leap forward for mobile and wearable technologies.”

Outlook: Enovix’s advanced battery technology could disrupt traditional lithium-ion batteries. If it successfully scales production and secures high-profile contracts with mobile, EV, and wearable tech companies, it could become a major battery industry disruptor.

Final Thoughts

These polarizing stocks face skepticism, but they also hold strong growth potential in disruptive industries. Investors betting on AI, mobility, clean energy, and space tech should closely watch these stocks as they could shape the future of multiple sectors.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Here is why stock market will be HIGHLY tradable: More volatility is coming

Markets are in one of their greatest trading environments of all time. Want to capitalize on it?

Has a new era begun? Investors have never been so optimistic…

Does Billionaire Warren Buffett Know Something Wall Street Doesn’t?

Earnings Calendar for This Week For Biotechs, Pharma And Econ, Plus Amazon And Alphabet

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The post Here Are 10 Most Polarizing Stocks in Market Right Now & Why Critics Might Be Wrong first appeared on Finblog.

Markets are in one of their greatest trading environments of all time. Want to capitalize on it?

Here’s what the analysts realized. (Source: TKL)

“First, it has become increasingly clear that President Trump’s goal with tariffs is NOT to generate long-term revenue. Rather, it’s to use tariffs as a measure to obtain certain policy outcomes. With Canada and Mexico, his goal is to secure the border as seen in today’s deals.

Here’s a timeline of the S&P 500 move today from open to close. Futures fell sharply into the open until the deal between Mexico and the US was announced at ~10 AM ET. Then, at ~4:30 PM ET, the US-Canada deal was announced. Dow Jones futures are now GREEN on the day.

After the announcement of the US-Mexico deal, we made a post calling it “a HUGE precedent.” President Trump is making it clear that his objective with tariffs is to obtain a DEAL, not keep tariffs running indefinitely. We called for a deal with Canada and it came hours later.

At the open, before the first deal was announced, we posted the below alert for our premium members. We called for the S&P 500 to reclaim 6,000+ once the dust settled. The index is now up +130 POINTS since this post.

The next hot topic will be EU tariffs which are already being discussed, according to Trump Admin officials. 10% tariffs on the EU are likely coming and we expect a similar reaction. President Trump “tested the waters” with Canada and Mexico and it clearly worked for him.

The price swings in commodity markets are even more volatile. Take a look at crude oil prices which surged ABOVE $75 on tariff headlines. After both deals were announced, oil prices fell back near December 2024 levels. The US Dollar is causing MASSIVE swings in commodities.

At the market open today, we posted the below alert for our premium members. We SHORTED the spike in oil prices and called for a retest of sub-$72 levels. Trump wants LOWER energy prices, markets are realizing this.

Meanwhile, the volatility in crypto is at a whole new level. Bitcoin rebounded nearly 15% from its low seen just 20 hours ago. That’s a near $500 BILLION swing in market cap in just 48 hours for Bitcoin. These swings will continue to broaden in both directions.

These swings will continue to broaden in both directions.

This was another alert we posted for our premium members at the open. As #Bitcoin fell into $95,000, we called for a move back toward $110,000. $100,000+ came much faster than just about anyone expected.

Going forward, we expect a quick initial reaction to tariff news and a potential equal and opposite reaction just as fast. This is particularly expected in cases where tariffs are being imposed on close allies. Use technical analysis to your advantage and remain OBJECTIVE.

As President Trump has clearly demanded lower interest rates, his advisors are certainly watching inflation expectations. Following the announcement of the US-Mexico deal, 2-year inflation breakevens fell sharply. These intra-day swings are impacting ALL asset classes.

After all, it is not in the US’ best interest to spur a rebound in inflation. As inflation expectations rise, we believe tariffs are more likely to be short-term bargaining chips. It’s one big game of chess.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

Related:

Earnings Calendar for This Week For Biotechs, Pharma And Econ, Plus Amazon And Alphabet

Has a new era begun? Investors have never been so optimistic…

Does Billionaire Warren Buffett Know Something Wall Street Doesn’t?

The post Markets are in one of their greatest trading environments of all time. Want to capitalize on it? first appeared on Finblog.

Investors have never been so optimistic.

The S&P 500 has risen ~5% over the last 7 days and hit an all-time high for the first time this year. This comes after back-to-back annual losses in the “Santa Claus” rally for the 3rd time in history. Recent buying is +2.3 standard deviations above the last 12-month average.

Meanwhile, foreign investors are rotating into US stocks at record levels. These investors purchased a record $76.5 billion US equities over the last 3 months. This surpassed the previous high seen in 2021 by ~$25 billion.

Foreign investors have purchased nearly 50% MORE US equities over the last 3 months compared to the previous record. Currently, foreign investors have 60% of their investment exposure to US stocks, on average. This is also a fresh record high as seen in the chart above. 

Since the Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, the S&P 500 is up 8%. This is in-line with historical rate cut cycles in the case that a recession was avoided. In the past, the S&P 500 has rallied ~50% on average in the 2 years after a rate cut IF a recession is avoided.

Since August 1st, subs are up ~2,200 POINTS on S&P 500 trades. Interestingly, market breadth is also improving. 89% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 10-day moving average, the highest percentage since November.

This is up ~65 percentage points over the last week. 49% of S&P 500 components are above their 50-day moving average.

The question becomes, can the US economy avoid a recession into 2026? Back to this chart, we can see equity performance is much worse if the economy enters a recession after cuts begin.

During recessions, the S&P 500 sees an -11% average decline 24 months after cuts begin. Economists seem to think we can avoid a recession. The probability of a US recession within the next 12 months perceived by economists surveyed by WSJ fell to 22%, the lowest in 3 years.

Over the last 2 years, the odds of a downturn have declined by ~40 percentage points.

Oil prices have also come down sharply over the last week. After nearing $80, oil prices are currently trading back below $75.

President Trump has said that his goal is to lower oil prices in order to spur disinflation in the US. He also called on OPEC to do the same.

However, the market is also heavily reliant on technology stocks.

The Information Technology sector now reflects 35% of the US stock market, even above the 33% peak seen in the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble. Tariffs and a potential trade war could jeopardize the market rally.

The question becomes, has the bull trade become too crowded? Bank of America’s Fund Manager Survey says the Long Magnificent 7 trade is the most crowded in the market.

Can the bull run continue into 2025?

Source: TKL

Related: $PLTR – Karp: “We have three products that changed the world & We’re just getting started”

The post Has a new era begun? Investors have never been so optimistic… first appeared on Finblog.

1. Lake Street’s ‘Buy’ Rating:
   • Lake Street Capital reaffirmed its “Buy” rating on Kopin Corporation, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth prospects.
   • The firm has set a price target of $2.50, suggesting a notable upside from the stock’s current trading levels.
2. Spike in Call Options Activity:
   • According to recent reports, Kopin has seen a large volume of call options traded, indicating increased bullish sentiment among investors.
   • The heightened activity suggests traders are betting on significant near-term price appreciation for the stock.
3. Market Context:
   • Kopin’s strong focus on cutting-edge technologies for defense, industrial, and consumer applications has positioned the company as a leader in its niche.
   • This optimism is likely bolstered by Kopin’s innovative product pipeline and partnerships within high-demand sectors like augmented reality (AR) and military-grade optics.

Investor Outlook

• The combination of Lake Street’s bullish stance and increased trading in call options highlights growing confidence in Kopin’s future performance.
• With a promising outlook in AR, defense technologies, and industrial applications, Kopin’s stock could see further interest from institutional and retail investors.

Sources

1. Lake Street Maintains ‘Buy’ on Kopin Stock, Price Target $2.50 – Investing.com
2. Stock Traders Purchase Large Volume of Kopin Call Options (NASDAQ:KOPN) – DefenseWorld.net

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

The post Kopin Stock Sees High Volume as Lake Street Maintains ‘Buy’ Rating first appeared on Finblog.