Rocket Labs (RKLB) vs Intuitive Machines (LUNR): The Likely Winner in 2025?

The commercial space race is accelerating, with Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) and Intuitive Machines (LUNR) emerging as two key players in the industry. With LUNR’s IM-2 mission scheduled for February 27 and Rocket Lab’s continued expansion in reusable rockets, investors are evaluating which stock presents a stronger long-term opportunity.

LUNR Prepares for Another Lunar Mission Amid Stock Surge

Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) is set to launch its second Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) mission (IM-2) to the Moon on February 27, delivering NASA’s PRIME-1 drill. This follows its historic Nova-C lunar landing in 2024, which ended a 50-year gap in U.S. lunar exploration.

Since landing Nova-C, LUNR stock has surged 267%, currently trading at $19.35 per share. However, the company faces challenges in maintaining investor interest due to widely spaced mission schedules, with IM-3 not planned until late 2025 or early 2026.

LUNR benefits from NASA’s $4.82 billion Near Space Network (NSN) contract.
The company focuses on lunar landers and Moon infrastructure, making it a niche but critical player in the space economy.
Its growth depends largely on government contracts, limiting its short-term scalability compared to private space launch providers.

Potential Government Funding Tailwinds for LUNR

With the Trump administration in office, there is speculation that recently exposed massive fraudulent government spending could redirect funds toward NASA’s Artemis program.

NASA’s fiscal 2024 budget: $24.87 billion
USAID’s controversial 2023 budget: $71.9 billion
Reallocating funds from non-space programs could lead to an increase in Artemis-like missions, benefiting LUNR as it specializes in lunar infrastructure.

While this presents an upside for Intuitive Machines, its low mission cadence means investors will have to wait long periods between stock catalysts.

Rocket Lab’s Strong Growth & the SpaceX Effect

Unlike LUNR, Rocket Lab USA (NASDAQ: RKLB) operates on a high-frequency launch schedule, making it a more consistent investment for traders and long-term holders alike.

Since early 2024, RKLB stock is up 501%, currently trading at $28.35 per share. The company recently completed its 59th Electron mission, launching satellites for the French IoT company Kinéis.

Why Investors Favor RKLB Over LUNR

Frequent satellite launches provide steady revenue & growth visibility.
Developing reusable Neutron rockets, comparable to SpaceX’s Falcon 9, which could revolutionize Rocket Lab’s profitability.
With SpaceX still private, RKLB is the best publicly traded pure-play space stock, making it a go-to investment for institutional & retail investors.

Additionally, Rocket Lab ranked 3rd globally in rocket launches for 2024, further proving its operational reliability and investor appeal.

Neutron Rockets: A Potential Game-Changer for RKLB

Rocket Lab is set to debut its Neutron rocket in late 2025, with commercial launches planned for 2026.

Neutron’s Competitive Edge

Powered by 9 Archimedes engines for reusability & cost efficiency.
13,000 kg payload to low Earth orbit (LEO), making it a viable competitor to Falcon 9.
Neutron could reduce RKLB’s reliance on SpaceX, making it self-sufficient for larger payload missions.

If Rocket Lab successfully scales Neutron, it could become a legitimate SpaceX rival, attracting even more institutional investment.

Financial Overview: LUNR vs. RKLB

Rocket Lab reported strong Q3 2024 results, demonstrating its long-term viability:

Revenue: $105 million (+55% YoY).
Order backlog: $1.05 billion (+80% YoY).
Cash Reserves: $508 million (enough to fund Neutron development).

Meanwhile, LUNR stock has been flat in 2025, up just 0.5%, as investors wait for the IM-2 mission to drive momentum.

Price Targets: What’s Next?

LUNR Current Price:$19.35
- WSJ Forecasted Price Target: $18
- Expect volatility before & after the IM-2 mission.
RKLB Current Price:$28.35
- Median Price Target: $25.50
- Could be undervalued if Neutron succeeds.

Conclusion: Which Space Stock to Buy?

LUNR: A long-term lunar infrastructure play, but low mission frequency limits short-term gains.
RKLB: A more dynamic investment, offering frequent launches, strong financials, and Neutron’s upside potential.

Investors looking for steady returns and long-term growth may find Rocket Lab (RKLB) the better bet, especially if Neutron rockets gain traction in 2026. However, LUNR presents an opportunistic play for those willing to wait for mission-driven price spikes.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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