Can NATO survive without the United States?

For almost 80 years, NATO has been the backbone of European security, with the United States playing a pivotal role in ensuring the alliance’s strength and deterrence capabilities. However, with Donald Trump’s second administration casting doubt on the U.S. commitment to defending NATO allies, European leaders are now grappling with an unsettling question: Can NATO function effectively without the U.S.?

The Growing Uncertainty in Transatlantic Relations

Trump’s public animosity toward Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, his favorable stance toward Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and his recent statements suggesting he may not defend NATO allies if they fail to pay their dues have forced European countries to reconsider their long-standing security reliance on Washington. While NATO without the U.S. would face challenges, analysts argue that Europe is not defenseless.

According to NATO’s financial structure, the U.S. and Germany are the largest contributors, each covering about 16% of NATO’s military budget, followed by the UK (11%) and France (10%). Analysts suggest that, if necessary, Europe could make up for the loss of U.S. contributions by increasing defense spending and investing in joint military capabilities.

Could Europe Stand on Its Own?

Europe, on paper, possesses the wealth, manpower, and military technology to sustain NATO without the U.S. Analysts suggest that if European nations unite and procure the right military equipment, they could pose a serious conventional and even nuclear deterrent to Russia.

“Europe alone still has the capacity to muster the resources it needs to defend itself—it’s just a question of whether it is willing to,” said Ben Schreer, Europe executive director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk have echoed this sentiment, stating that Europe has the strength to deter Russian aggression independently, provided that nations step up defense investments.

How Strong Is Europe’s Military Without the U.S.?

While the U.S. is by far the most powerful member of NATO, the 31 other member states collectively maintain formidable military capabilities:

NATO Member States’ Active Military Personnel

• Turkey: 355,200 troops
• France: 202,200 troops
• Germany: 179,850 troops
• Poland: 164,100 troops
• Italy: 161,850 troops
• United Kingdom: 141,100 troops
• Greece: 132,000 troops
• Spain: 122,200 troops

Air & Naval Power

• The UK, France, Italy, and Spain all operate aircraft carriers and advanced naval fleets.
• European nations combined have over 2,000 fighter jets, including F-35 stealth aircraft.
• France and the UK both maintain nuclear deterrence forces, with each country deploying ballistic missile submarines.
• European countries field modern battle tanks, such as Leopard 2 (Germany) and Challenger 2 (UK).
• Long-range precision weapons like the Franco-British SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles are already deployed in Ukraine.

Would Europe’s Economy Sustain NATO Without the U.S.?

If the U.S. withdrew, Europe would face an estimated additional €250 billion annually in defense spending to sustain NATO’s operations. This would require European nations to raise defense spending to 3.5-4% of GDP—a significant leap from the current average of 1.7%.

To counteract reliance on the U.S., European defense initiatives are already in motion:

• ReArm Europe Initiative: Proposed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, aiming to mobilize up to €800 billion for joint military procurement and defense projects.
• European Intervention Initiative (EI2): Created in 2018, designed to foster military cooperation outside of NATO.

U.S. Military Infrastructure in Europe—A Strategic Advantage?

Even if the U.S. withdrew troops, it would leave behind 31 military bases in Europe, including naval, air, and command facilities. These assets would still be available to European NATO members, ensuring that the U.S. retains the ability to “return” if geopolitical conditions change.

Is This the End of NATO as We Know It?

Some analysts believe that Trump’s hostile rhetoric toward NATO is simply a bargaining tool to pressure allies into contributing more. Historically, the U.S. has used similar tactics, such as Trump’s previous threats to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea, which ultimately never materialized.

However, others believe that NATO’s transatlantic unity has already been permanently damaged.

“Once you start to lose part of that commitment, you effectively lose it all,” said John Lough, a former NATO official at Chatham House.

The ultimate question is whether Europe will step up to fill the power vacuum left by a potentially disengaged U.S. If so, NATO could evolve into an independent European-led defense alliance—but only if the continent is willing to invest in its own security.

Conclusion

While the U.S. withdrawal from NATO would be a major geopolitical shift, European nations do have the capability to defend themselves. However, this would require unprecedented levels of defense spending, cooperation, and political will.

The future of NATO will largely depend on whether Trump’s rhetoric translates into real policy—and how quickly Europe can adapt to a new reality where U.S. protection is no longer guaranteed.

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Sources:

Official & Analytical Reports

1. NATO Financial & Military Data – NATO Official Website
2. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Report – IISS Official Website
3. Congressional Research Service (CRS) Report on U.S. Troops in Europe – CRS Report
4. Military Balance 2025 Report (Troop Strength & Equipment Data) – IISS Military Balance

News & Think Tank Articles

5. CNN Analysis on U.S. & NATO Relations – CNN Report
6. Financial Times on Europe’s Defense Spending Needs – FT Report
7. Chatham House Analysis on NATO Without the U.S. – Chatham House
8. Atlantic Council’s Geopolitical Assessment – Atlantic Council Report
9. The Guardian on EU Defense Integration – The Guardian Report
10. War on the Rocks: How Europe Could Strengthen Without the U.S. – War on the Rocks

Policy & Defense Initiatives

11. ReArm Europe Initiative (EU Defense Strategy) – European Commission